Some of Central Asia's Issues

Here are a few items you may find of interest…please find them of interest!

1. Central Asia's Railroad – Continuing yesterday's discussion of China's growing influence and investments in Central Asia, well according to this Turkish Weekly report even the Yuan can't buy everything. The report argues that prospects for building a railroad that would connect Europe and China through the Middle East and Central Asia looks ‘unrealizable’ in the near future due to economical and political challenges. Kyrgyzstan with its slow economic growth, poor investment climate, political instability, and mountainous terrain, is highlighted as being too risky for investors, even China. The report also mentions that the Chinese government may be afraid of connecting its unstable Xinjiang Province with the politically volatile CA states. Let us hope that a deal can be worked out as improving the transportation in region is vital for it to become more connected to the outer world, especially economically.

2. Afghanistan's Opium Production – Last month the UN's Office on Drugs and Crime released a report stating that for the first time in 3 years the Afghan Opium production had dropped. and by a not insignificant 19%. Unfortunately, the report gives most credit to the drop to the recent drought in the nation's north and northwest regions. The UN report also cites stronger government leadership in certain areas that has discouraged farmers from planting opium through campaigns, peer pressure, and the promotion of alternative crops. One thing the report does not give credit for is the government-led eradication of fields effort. To no surprise, the analysis also came to this conclusion: “There is now a perfect overlap between zones of high risk [Taliban invested areas] and regions of high opium cultivation.” In addition, here is a policy recommendation from ISN Security Watch's Maseh Zarif advocating shoring up regional cooperation and support (basically in Central Asia, Iran, Pakistan, and the Middle East) and rooting out internal corruption. Not new ideas, but the analysis and details are worth reviewing.

3. Update on the CA's Water Situation – Here is a discussion from a Kyrg point of view about the growing conflict between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over water and energy rights, specifically regarding the building of the Rogun power station. Apparently, Uzbekistan is trying to get Mother Russia on its side. The paper discusses a compromise based on the exchange of discharged water for supplies of gas and oil in the winter, but it also underlines the competing interests and challenges of dealing with water as a commodity.

4. Dictators Bad, but it could be Worse – The fall of Musharraf in Pakistan and the stroke of Kim Jong-il in North Korea are small reminders that political instability, especially in nations with nukes and extremists, can be even worse. Dictators can be brutally oppressive leaders who take away the rights and hopes of their citizens, but it is true that they do provide a certain level of stability that when gone, can be sorely missed.

5. Barack Obama in Muslim Eyes – The Jerusalem Post and Daniel Pipes take a crack at analyzing how Muslims see the US presidential candidate. Is he a fellow Muslim, a Christian, an apostate, just another US president, or something else?

6. Conference on Afghanistan Today – NYU's Center on Law and Security will be hosting a major conference on October 17 titled ‘Afghanistan Today: Drugs, Detention, and Counterinsurgency.‘ The list of speakers is quite impressive: Ambassador Richard C. Holbrooke, Steve Coll, Peter Bergen, Barnett Rubin, Scott Horton, Steve Simon, David Kilcullen, Hekmat Karzai, Joanne Mariner, Imtiaz Ali, Lt. Gen., David Barno, Shuja Nawaz, Lawrence Wright, Elizabeth Rubin, Nir Rosen, Sean Langan, Doug Wankel, Andrew Wilder, Stephen Holmes, Karen Greenberg, Ambassador Omar Samad, and others. If you are in New York stop by, and for all of us who may miss it, I will do my best to post the transcripts and major happenings.