Russia Riots: Ask the FPA's Magic 8 Ball

So, another day of anti-government riots in Russia, beginning with the requisite calls for Putin’s resignation and ending in dozens of arrests.

What to make of it all? Ask the FPA Russia Blog’s MAGIC 8 BALL.

Q. Do the protests have a lot to do with economic issues?

It is decidedly so.

“Support for Mr Putin’s United Russia party fell in recent local elections, and the economic crisis brought a sudden end to 10 years of growth.

“One poster in Vladivostok called for “Free Speech, Free Elections!” while others demanded more funding for children’s sports and lower household bills.

“Many participants in the rallies demanded the resignation of Mr Putin and other public officials. The protests did not match ones in January in which thousands of people rallied against what they describe as the government’s mismanagement of the economy”. (BBC News)

Q. Lots of angry people: Are the protests like the US Tea Parties?

As I see it, Yes.

A whole month ago, your humble blogger had first compared the anti-government riots to the Tea Parties in an interview with Voice of America, saying: ‘These demonstrations have about as much chance of overthrowing the regime as the Tea Party protests in the US’.

It seems this notion is catching on:

Mr. Putin might be wise to take note of the Tea Party-like “Day of Wrath” rallies that struck 20 Russian cities on Saturday – from the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad to the Pacific port of Vladivostok – because they illustrate a growing willingness among crisis-hit Russians to take their grievances into the streets as well as an extraordinary, Internet-driven ability to coordinate their actions across the country’s expanse of 11 time zones.(Fred Weir in the Christian Science Monitor).

Q. Are the protests gaining ground?

My sources say Yes

“Though the protests appear to pose no coherent or immediate challenge to the Kremlin, analysts say they are a sign of mounting economic pain and political frustration around the country, and a growing readiness among young people to take their grievances into the streets”. (Fred Weir in the Christian Science Monitor).

“A poll this month by Russia’s Public Opinion Foundation found that 29% of Russians were ready to take part in protests, up from 21% in February. (Miriam Elder, The Guardian)

Q. Can the Kremlin contain the protests forever?

Very Doubtful.

“Nikolai Petrov, a scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said the situation in Kaliningrad illustrates how the Kremlin’s efforts to keep opposition parties weak is beginning to backfire.

“These protests are more spontaneous. They aren’t organized by political parties, so they can’t be stopped by political parties,” he said. “If opposition parties are weak, the Kremlin isn’t in a position to negotiate with anyone to contain the protests. And that means they can’t be easily controlled.”(Philip Pan, Washington Post)

Nevertheless, in a sign of increased nervousness, the Kremlin has taken an unprecedented step in ostensibly taking down a website used by the protest organisers, reported the dissident radio station Ekho Moskvy.

Q. Will the protests bring down the government?

Don’t count on it.

“Few, even those in opposition, believe the Putin government will fall. “It will take time,” [Vladimir Milov, a co-leader of Solidarity, an umbrella opposition movement] said. “But just two years ago it would have been impossible to imagine mass demonstrations making political demands like the resignation of Putin’s government.” (Miriam Elder, The Guardian)

Q. Will the government bring down itself?

Signs point to yes.

“Russia has a very rigid, top-down state structure that seems to be fairly invulnerable to challenges from without,” says [leftist scholar and activist Boris] Kagarlitsky. “But it’s not really able to generate long-term stability, and it’s only a matter of time before there’s a split at the top. The biggest threat to the system comes from within.”(Fred Weir, Christian Science Monitor).