Brief comments about three separate but interconnected stories:
I am not the only one who wonders if Jacob Zuma might not have overplayed his hand and created a situation the unintended consequences of which might be to prevent him from taking over as South Africa's president in 2009. Patrick Laurence speculates similarly in a piece in the Star. Given the controversy that swirls around Zuma , the discontented cadres allied with Mbeki, the wariness of many who see a fractured ANC, and the opportunity that Kgalema Motlanthe has before him, do not be surprised if Zuma's gambit backfires and spectacularly so.
And while those who still maintain power can deny the depth of the ANC's divisions, do not be fooled by such whistling past the graveyard. Those divisions are real, they are deep, and they will not easily be reconciled. Expect the rumblings of the formation of a breakaway party to grow louder in the months to come. And if the formation of a new party comes to pass, it will be yet another outcome for which Jacob Zuma and his supporters will have proved to be woefully unprepared.
Finally, to calm the shaken nerves of investors Trevor Manuel has announced that there will be little change in South Africa's macroeconomic policies. Which is to say that the new dispensation will almost surely find that nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki embraced the fundamental tenets of free market capitalism for very sensible and pragmatic reasons. There is ample room for disagreement about the nature of South Africa's economy, and simply prattling on about the wonders of the market provides no panacea. But those idealists and ideologues advocating fantastical solutions in which South Africa will somehow turn its back on the fundamental tenets of the market economy will be in for a rude awakening.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
