Most observers, myself included, concur that the African National Congress is likely to win South Africa’s April elections handily. The Congress of the People lacks the infrastructure, the public loyalty, and the heft at the top of the ticket (former bishop Mvume Dandala is a good man, but is not seen as having the killer instinct needed at the top ranks of electoral politics) to pose a serious threat to the incumbent governing party.
And yet something keeps gnawing at me. Prominent members of the ANC continue to defect from the party. Many of them are heading directly to to COPE. And the fact that so many of them are leaving the ANC because of Jacob Zuma’s presence at the top of the party ticket must be especially disquieting to the party. Furthermore, a smattering of defectors have come crawling back to the ANC. And the ANC has indicated that they are welcome to return. A party so traditionally committed to party loyalty, and to punishing apostates, would not so easily accept members slinking back after testing the grass on the other side unless it felt that it needed those members.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
