Quietly, Mexico Frustrates Iranian Schemes

How is it that Mexico got caught up in an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States? Manssor Arbabsiar had his flight itinerary diverted from Mexico City to New York, where U.S. law enforcement arrested him for plotting the murder of Adel Al-Jubeir in Washington, DC. Apparently Arbabsiar, an Iranian who married into U.S. citizenship, had been meeting for months with a conspirator in Mexico whom he believed to be a member of the Zetas drug gang. In fact, his Mexican accomplice worked for the DEA.

President Obama and Attorney General Holder have said in recent days that the Quds Force, a special operations wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, hatched the alleged plot. Arbabsiar was co-opted by his cousin, a Quds operative, to help carry it out. The Iranian government denies any involvement.

Doubts about the plot are coming from all corners. Media reports portray Arbabsiar to be a Persian Peter Griffin—unlikely makings for a secret agent. And it’s hard to believe that Iran—yes, even Iran—could be so intent on carrying out a high-level assassination as to explode a bomb in Washington, DC. It also stretches credulity to think that members of the Zetas would carry out a high-profile murder for $1.5 million in the US.

Yet Mexico’s part in the affair isn’t far-fetched. Obviously, Mexico shares a border the US, and a number of Mexican gangs, including the Zetas, are known to operate in US territory. Second, like Canada, Mexico has historically had little reason to fear foreign agents, so it didn’t bother with counterespionage. Third, Muslim radicals can blend into Mexico’s sizeable Lebanese community.
In my forthcoming book, I analyze Iran’s support for Hezbollah and Quds Force cells in South America and Mexico. To summarize: these groups are unlikely to carry out an attack against the United States, but their presence deters U.S military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Cooperation in criminal enterprise also can’t be ruled out. In 2010 Congresswoman Sue Myrick wrote a letter to the Department of Homeland Security claiming that Hezbollah was working with Mexican gangs to traffic drugs.

It isn’t clear if the US intelligence community takes these claims seriously. Maybe U.S. agents are quietly monitoring terrorist activities in Mexico, maybe not. But Mexico has clearly stepped up its counterterrorism efforts. Last July Mexican police arrested Jameel Nasr, thought to be a Hezbollah ringleader, in Tijuana. While the story didn’t get much coverage in the States, Kuwaiti and Israeli newspapers congratulated Mexican law enforcement for “foil[ing] an attempt by Hezbollah to establish a network” in the Americas.

Now there’s Arbabsiar. Mexican Deputy Foreign Minister Julian Ventura told reporters last Tuesday that his government helped the US bring down Arbabsiar “from the first moment.” Mexican officials have yet to say more.