After a full day of media reporting and analysis of the death of Osama Bin Laden we are now in a better position to answer some of the questions I posed in my last post. Of course, details remain sketchy and some things may never be known, but we are at least starting to fill in the blanks.
First, I asked how closely did the U.S. cooperate with Pakistan in staging this operation and how will it impact relations with Pakistan? The initial answer seems to be that the U.S. did not cooperate with Pakistan at all and did not inform Pakistan about the raid until it was over. This was the word from President Obama despite some contrary comments from other administration sources and tonight the president of Pakistan has released a statement confirming that the raid was not a joint operation. This article in The New Yorker suggests that there is a growing suspicion that Pakistan knew all along where Bin Laden was and was playing a double-game. It’s certain that U.S. relations with Pakistan are in for a very rough period but it’s likely that the mutual needs of our strategic relationship (dictated by our withdrawal from Afghanistan and our desire to contain the regional nuclear arms race) will eventually temper any calls to sever relations.
Second, I asked if the death of Osama Bin Laden accelerate or delay the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan? According to this report in The New York Times, this is something that the government of Afghanistan is very worried about. I’m not sure their fears are warranted. President Obama has said that the withdrawal will be gradual and dictated by security conditions. He has never advocated an immediate and complete withdrawal from Afghanistan
Next, will al-Qaida be demoralized by this American victory or will they become even more radicalized as they seek retribution for their fallen leader? This newswire report from Reuters offers the kind of bluster and bravado one might expect from jihadists in the face of such a stunning defeat. They are reacting with disbelief and pledges of revenge and retaliation. Still, if it was true that Bin Laden was not in operational control of the terrorists networks operating under his banner and hasn’t been for years, it’s unlikely that his death will spark the kind of carefully planned attack we saw on 9/11. We must remain vigilant, of course, but I think the real threat is low-level attacks by lone wolves. Not that they can’t cause damage, this is the age of asymmetric warfare after all, but experts seem hopeful that a top-down leadership-driven attack on a major target in the West is not in the offing. Why? U.S. security forces have done such a great job of eliminating mid-level leaders that the network is even more diffuse than ever.
And finally, I asked how the military operation was planned and executed. This report from the National Journal reveals that the raid was the result of patience, professionalism, and precision on the part of the Joint Special Operations Command and the Navy SEALs. The intelligence was cultivated over many months with extreme patience on the part of both analysts and decision-makers. A fake compound was built and practice runs conducted in preparation for the raid. And the actual operation, witnessed in real-time by Obama’s national security team watching from the White House situation room, was a culmination of the years of training and extraordinary competence of the SEALs as they landed, secured the compound, and engaged Bin Laden’s security forces.
Perhaps the military capability and patience demonstrated by the U.S. will in itself be a deterrent to any potential jihadists out there who now know that no matter how long it takes, they will be brought to justice.
Photo Credit: The White House
