President Zardari's Interview in Le Monde Directed Against Local Enemies

Its hard to imagine the stake-holder that he had in mind when President Asif Ali Zardari had his chat with a reporter for Le Monde.

He is on record to have claimed:

“The international community, to which Pakistan belongs, is losing the war against the Taliban. “This is above all because we have lost the battle to win hearts and minds.”  Moreoever, on the Aghanistan surge he said “military reinforcements are only a small part of the response.. To win the support of the Afghan people, we must bring them economic development, and prove that we can not only change their lives, but improve them.”

He said further that the Taliban” have no chance of regaining power, though their influence is growing,” but that time is on their side.”  Success for them lies “in knowing how to wait” for ISAF forces to leave the field of battle.

Now all of this is true.  Indeed, his speech suggests that the U.S. and the NATO coalition should redouble its effort to not just maintain but drastically increase economic and social investment and thereby improve the COIN strategy.   Nevertheless he needs to be wary of seeming too needy and too close to the U.S. and NATO allies.

But that has no bearing on the impression that these comments will have made on the diplomatic community trying to wrangle money and time for the U.S and NATO effort in the region.  Indeed, these comments were made on the eve of a meeting with British Prime Minister David Cameron who has been quite demonstrative in his desire to see ‘results’–of some specious kind, I’m sure– in Pakistan.  Let us not forget that these comments were made right at the time when COIN is on its shakiest footing.

Now certainly these comments could not rationally be thought to be directed toward Zardari’s U.S. allies.  Though again, his words could seem to stand against Prime Minister Cameron’s challenge, his response–if this were the case–seems somewhat petulant.  An off handed strike akin to: “You can’t see results, because you’ve messed up.”

Certainly the claims cannot be deigned to be directed at assuaging public opinion in Pakistan.  He is facing deep criticism for leaving Pakistani soil just as Pakistan is experiencing its worst floods in more than a century.  Citing failures and issuing ambiguous pronouncements about terrorism and social development while in Paris will not likely win him many supporters in Khyber Pakhtankhwa Province.

The claims might just send a message to the vultures circling in Islamabad that President Asif Ali Zardari is still in control of the PPP and its ruling government.  Zardari does not need the people’s vote to stay in power.  He needs the military and the provincial governors behind him if he is to remain in power.  Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif’s hesitation notwithstanding, he can get by well as long as those waiting in the wings see that he is prepared to run the gauntlet to remain in power.

Surely that is why he left Pakistan in his people time of need: To box the young Prime Minister Cameron’s ears!  But, this move stands ahead of a more important move that he is asserting–that he understands his people’s suffering and that of his selectorate, the real electorate who’ve ensconced him in power.

It is surely a complicated game that Pakistan is now being forced to play.  Nevertheless comments such as those that Zardari made in Paris are harming the diplomatic effort that is, finally, trying to maintain his hold on power.  Politics and strategy are something of a chicken and egg conundrum.  It does no good to count your chicken (suppose, Zardari’s hold on power) when you smash the egg that will birth that chicken– the egg that, through diplomacy, will serve your needs.