PRC: A Year in Review – The Growing Shadow of the Dragon

Overview

Although this year was China’s year of the “Diplomatic Misstep”, it is often overlooked that Beijing, likely because it is not a democracy, has a domestic audience it must cater to.  Much of China’s contemporary foreign policy has it’s roots in smoldering nationalism, a beast which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) did not create, but has often tried harness to it’s benefit.  Still, a potential disaster scenario for the party is one in which it finds itself on the wrong side of nationalist fervor, seen as having made China “lose face” before foreign powers, especially Japan or the United States.   This potential danger has been balanced by the fact that for the party it  usually advantageous to keep the public’s angst focused internationally rather than on the CCP elites in Zhongnanhai, especially over issues of corruption; inflation; income inequality; and unemployment.

The foundation for the current nationalist sentiment can be traced back to the humiliation experienced by China over the “unequal treaties” (不平等条约: Bu Ping Deng Tiao Yue) of the 18th and 19th centuries, which were imposed on it by the European Powers and Japan.  These treaties often forced China to cede territory at the point of a gun.  Today, many ethnic Han Chinese  still feel these insults to Chinese dignity, and believe they have never been properly addressed.  This grievance has fed a continual stream of Chinese nationalist indignation into the shared Zeitgeist of “Greater China“.  For these reasons, nothing is more sacred to nationalists then Chinese territorial cohesion and security.   From this prism, we will look back over China’s border conflicts in 2010, speculate as to how China’s history will inform of concerning the future of China’s resurrection as a regional power.

Most Unexpected Event of 2010

In September of 2010 the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands incident occurred.  The Japanese coast guard was rammed by a Chinese fishing trawler in Japanese undisputed waters, near the very much disputed Senkaku Island chain.  The world’s 2nd and 3rd largest economies continue to experience strained relations in decades as a result.  Nationalism, not allowing Beijing to back-down, China’s response was a form of economic warfare, an export embargo on  rare earth minerals exports to Japan.  Rare earth elements are critical to production of various electronic components. This “punishment” was specifically due to the Japanese having the “audacity” to arrest the bellicose crawler captain, who, once again,  rammed a Japanese security vessel in Japanese territorial waters.  But as with most things between Japan and China, this has more to do with World War II than what actually happened in 2010.

As China “made it rain” on Japan, neighboring Southeast Asia, many of whom also have territorial conflicts with China, were sent reeling, scampering to seek refuge under an American security umbrella.  The situation clearly backfired on Beijing, which has went out of it’s way over the last decade to promote it’s “Peaceful Rise”  with its apprehensive neighbors, while drawing them closer into it’s sphere of influence.

Person of the Year

Kim Jong-il – The Kim mafia has been quite often, especially in the latter half of 2010.  Every time Kim Jong-Il makes a headline China gets uncomfortable.  Great Leader Kim  is somewhat akin to  the the late U.S. mafia  boss, John “The Teflon Don”  Gotti Jr., he makes far too many newspaper headlines, a spotlight that makes his friends uneasy.    As North Korea’s primary benefactor, China is the only nation that can force the North to dismantle its nuclear arsenal.  However, China will not exert significant pressure on the Pyongyang  until the threat of instability on its border is greater than the threat of the presence of American troops on the other side of the Yalu River.  China will then be  forced to recalculate the utility of supporting  Don Kim.

Contrary to common media depiction, Kim is a rational actor.  In fact, when scrutinizing North Korea’s conduct with the supposition that every action it has taken is for the preservation of Kim-family power, it is apparent that even the most provocative actions have been deliberate.   Kim has managed to hold on to power by leveraging and maintaining his close relationship with China.  Kim also maintains a formidable arsenal capable of wrecking havoc on Japan and decimating much of South Korea in the event of an attack against him.  He has also increased his importance by developing nuclear weapons, at the same time, outwitting 2 previous U.S. presidents, who like Obama, could not figure out how to remove him without sending the entire region into a destabilizing downward spiral.

What to watch in 2011

For 2011, all eyes should be on the Chinese territorial flash-points:

North Korean Nuclear Conflict that is playing out on China’s border with South Korea, involving the both Koreas,  the United States, and Japan.

East China Sea (Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands) conflict with Japan.

South China Sea (Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands) conflict with Republic of China (Taiwan), Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei.

All of these issues betray the fraying of China’s relations with it’s  increasingly American friendly neighbors.  In 2010, the U.S. not only took an indirect shot at China, but recent military exercises in the region and criticism of China’s allies North Korea and Myanmar has given a clear signal that the U.S. will continue to be actively engaged in the region, something the Obama administration promised last year at  ASEAN and APEC.

China will not sit idly by and watch the U.S. marginalize its interest in Southeast Asia, on the Korean Peninsula, or in the East China Sea.   China will continue to formulate and implement an indirect response through increased diplomacy and trade, as well as shoring up relationship with nations of concern, such as Myanmar, North Korea, and Vietnam.  China wants to see its soft power and hard power grow in the region.  To do this, Beijing believes it to be critical to keep it’s borders, it’s “near abroad” in it’s sphere of influence.  Specifically, this will allow China to gain more control over shipping routes in the South China Sea.  China must insure that it can maintain a steady supply of natural resources to fuel its economic growth, even in the case of conflict, such as with Taiwan.  Southeast Asia is also resource rich and ripe with investment opportunities, which will enable China to expand its own economy.

For the foreseeable future North Korea  …China is the only nation that can force the North to dismantle its nuclear arsenal, but it likely will not do so, especially as it sees a potential American friendly united Korea on its border as more of a threat than the Kim Family Mafia, nuclear armed or not.  This calculus could change, but as the Wiki Leaks revealed, China has been formulating  a “post-Kim” contingency plan.

In addition, look for more public push back against the U.S. presence in the region, a charm campaign with some of it’s neighbors, but no formal movement on it’s territorial issues, as any such move would stoke nationalist sentiment domestically.  There will simply be less public discussion about territorial issues, as China continues quietly consolidate power.  Part of that consolidation will be the further development of a Chinese deep-water navy and construction of overseas bases/friendly ports as China expand it’s reach in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

From the staff of the Foreign Policy’s China Blog: Happy New Year.