Pakistan: Regional democratic & security disaster

In some ways, it's always better to think in terms of interlocking regions rather than states–and with Central Asia as a nexus of interlocked regions, it's most important.  Right now, Pakistan is –depending on one's point of view–in more upheaval, or– determined to clamp down on upheaval for once and all.  For Central Asia watchers, the question goes past Pakistan alone, into the implications for Afghanistan-and for Central Asia in general.

Brief timeline:
September 10, 2007: Nawaz Sharif, a previous Pakistan President, returns to Pakistan to get ready for elections.  He is deported back to Saudi Arabia due to corruption charges against him in Pakistan.  This makes no sense to me, but there it is.

October 18th, 2007: Benazir Bhutto, another previous Pakistan President, declares she will run for office.  She sort of filled that media gap for the West: a symbol of progress (female president of developing state who interviewed well) but has also not escaped accusations of governmental corruption–and not just in Pakistan, but also in Swiss courts.

October 19, 2007: A rally for Benazir Bhutto's candidacy is bombed, despite tight security.  One hundred and forty people are killed.  Although some suspect Taliban or MQM, Ms. Bhutto is on record saying that it could also be anti-democratic members of the Pakistan military (Mr. Musharraf is, or was, General Musharraf before the 1999 military coup that overthrew Mr. Sharif).

November 3, 2007: President Musharraf declares martial law. 
1. The Chief Justice Mr. Chaudhry, of the judiciary branch is told his services were not needed.  In the past, Justice Chaudhry has ruled against the government's position.
2. Ms. Bhutto's house is surrounded by troops (she was out of the country, but then returned). 
3. A prominent oppositionist and lawyer, Mr. Ahsan is detained, and so is popular sports figure and oppositionist Mr. Khan. 
4. Private TV goes off the air–that's the end of the free press, in other words. 
5. The Constitution is suspended. 
Mr. Musharraf is doing this to prevent Pakistan from “committing suicide.”  Well, it looks like he killed democratic government in so doing.  But he wasn't quite done:

November 4, 2007: The round-up and arrest of more than 500 opposition figures was completed today.  BBC and CNN were also taken off the air.  Other party workers for Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif were arrested.  Some figures are also detained in house arrest.

The rumor is that elections, supposed to be held mid-January, will be delayed for almost a year.

Radiating effects:
According to the NYT, there's 25,000 U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, and more security problems are inevitable.  Once Mr. Musharraf is done jailing all of the middle class people who are interested in democracy, presumbably there will be a new push in the NorthWest territories to get Islamic extremists with bombs in hand.  Already there will be migratory pressures, as people flee arrest.  Then there will be strategic deployments of Pakistani weapons and troops, marauders and terrorists.  This will create even more unrest and instability on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Yes, and then other programs, already dealing with security problems such as the UN's Aid Mission to Afghanistan, will have more people to look after and less security to do it in.  Likewise, whatever opium, morphine, and heroin interdiction programs are in operation right now in Afghanistan will be harder to implement, which has particular effect in Central Asia–especially Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan.  Also it is a problem for Iran, which tends to disrupt the already fragile social structures on the other side of Afghanistan: the Afghanistan-Iran border.

All you have to do is look at a map to see these problems radiating further: the rest of Central Asia, northern India, the Caspian, the Trans-caucasus. 

Further reading:
Thanks, BBC: English translation of Mr. Musharraf's November 3 declaration of martial law