Early morning February 7, 2011, Hikmatullo Saifullozoda, a 60 year old editor of the opposition newspaper Najot and a prominent member of the opposition from the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), was ambushed and brutally beaten by unidentified perpetrators near his home in the capital city Dushanbe. He is currently in a hospital in critical condition. In a statement, the United States Embassy in Tajikistan has “strongly condemned” the incident.
The IRPT presents the only real opposition party in the country even though it holds just two seats in the 63-seat Assembly of Representatives. Eurasianet.org reports that the IRPT is in no way a radical organization, but is often bullied and portrayed by the Tajik government as an Islamic party to justify its crackdowns on the opposition. The IRPT, independent media and any opposition in general has come under increasing criticism and pressure from the government in the past few months.
How is this related to the region in general?
In an article exploring the roots of the Kyrgyz revolution in 2010 on the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty website, Venera Djumataeva explains that the sharp increase in utility prices, mobile phone surcharges and fees, and electrical blackouts throughout the country despite the fact that Kyrgyzstan has an abundance of hydroenergy played a key role in inciting the revolt. But corruption, nepotism and favoritism, massive mismanagement of governmental funds coupled with blatant attacks on journalists and opposition members pushed the Kyrgyz over the brink. Many believe that what happened in Kyrgyzstan last April could repeat itself elsewhere in the region. Tajikistan is in a precarious position in Central Asia today because the political and socio-economic conditions are similar to Bakiev’s Kyrgyzstan.
A recently published report entitled Central Asia: Decay and Decline produced by the International Crisis Group identifies an unstable Kyrgyzstan and a dangerously weakened Tajikistan governed by an aging autocrat as two of the most volatile countries in Central Asia.
Speaking of aging autocrats. In February of this year, Time Magazine ran a piece called Top 10 Autocrats in Trouble featuring ten rulers that are likely to lose power. Accurately predicted by the magazine, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt topped the list at number one. Emomali Rahmon, president of Tajikistan, appeared at number eight and is the only one to represent the five Central Asian leaders. It is not entirely clear why he was singled out, but perhaps the authors think that since Tajikistan is not awash in petrodollars it is more susceptible to revolution.
Power cuts, perennial corruption, a porous Afghan boarder, suppression of opposition or dissent, frequent attacks on journalists and most significantly the abject poverty of its population make it vulnerable to an outbreak of mass dissent and vulnerable to possible retaliation by the regime.
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