Nuclear Ambiguity Good for the Region

Israel has managed to maintain a policy of nuclear ambiguity for decades, refusing to comment on whether it has a nuclear arsenal. It is widely believed that Israel has a couple hundred nuclear warheads, likely scattered throughout the country and ready to launch in the event Israel is threatened with annihilation. Granted, other countries — namely Iraq — have fooled the world on whether they have nuclear capabilities, something that is most likely a mute point with Israel that, unless a fantastic smoke and mirrors job was executed, has had a sophisticated nuclear weapons program for some time.

Then, why has Israel not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty? Some, including the atomic watchdog and Arab countries, are now calling on Israel to sign the treaty and open its facilities to IAEA inspections.

In the past, Israeli officials have said that until there is a comprehensive peace, there is no reason to sign the treaty. In large part, this view points to a number of signatories who have threatened Israel with destruction. Israel has never issued the same genocidal threats and does not wave its nuclear arsenal around as fodder to thwart any pending attacks.

Which, bring up the next point, an issue I have repeatedly mentioned. There is no nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Israel’s nuclear program is dubbed the “bomb in the basement” for a reason. It is not masqueraded around and is not used as a threat. It’s merely suspected of being an insurance policy to be used in the most dire of circumstances.

We have not seen many other countries in the region embark on a major nuclear program. In the early 1980s, Iraq had a fledgling program, destroyed by Israel and it was never resurrected. Similarly, Syria began building a facility a few years ago, although that location was also bombed. That leaves Iran, a lone wolf trying to obtain nuclear weapons in a sea of Arab, Sunni countries that have no interest in developing nuclear capabilities and are opposed to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons (see Saudi Arabia).

Therefore, its particularly interesting that Egypt is leading efforts to open Israel’s facilities. The nuclear landscape was stable in the Middle East, with one exception — Iran, not Israel.  Bringing Israel’s nuclear program into the limelight threatens to spark a nuclear arms race and only complicates efforts to thwart the Iranian nuclear program.

In this case, Egypt is shooting itself in the foot by calling on Israel to open its facilities. Tension between Israel and Egypt is expected to rise in the coming years, as the Muslim Brotherhood gains support and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ages, with his successor potentially straying from the peace agreement with Israel or even flatly rejecting it. Egypt and Israel have cooperated significantly of late (see the bombing of the Libyan convoy and efforts to track terrorists in Sinai). Shining the spot light on Israel’s nuclear program only serves to distance the two countries, being the equivalent of kicking Israel in the gut and threatening to escalate tensions during Mubarak’s tenure, complicating the peace accord for the future.

If pressure on Israel heightens to the point where nuclear ambiguity is no longer an option, the Middle East will suffer even more, with every country immediately launching nuclear programs that threaten to destabilize the region even further. For Israel, Egypt, the Middle East, and the world’s sake, talk of pulling the curtain back on Israel’s nuclear program should be swept under the rug and forgotten.