Noy Noy, Corruption Pays, and Vietnam in the Dragon's Shadow

Cambodia: Corruption and illiberalism pays according to an article running at the Asian Times.  The author believes that Cambodian foreign aid has continued to increase, despite Hun Sen’s continued political oppression of the opposition, due to the West’s fear that any decline in aid flows would create a void that will most certainly filled by China.  In recent years, China has actively been seeking opportunities to increase it’s economic footprint in Cambodia.

“On June 3, while Hun Sen was celebrating the silencing of one of the country’s foremost champions of democracy, free speech and human rights, international donors pledged US$1.1 billion in aid for this year, up from last year’s $950 million.”

“The largest aid package in Cambodia’s history came at the end of a two-day donor conference in Phnom Penh, lifting the pressure on the Hun Sen administration to push ahead with five areas of reform. Three areas spelled out in 2004 by donors included changes to fight corruption and increase accountability, legal and judicial reform, protection of human rights and public administration reform.”

“That little had changed over the years was highlighted by a coalition of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) on the eve of this month’s donor meeting. “Serious actions, such as court convictions of corruption cases, remain selective or are limited within certain political considerations,” stated the NGO Forum on Cambodia.”

Philippines:  President-Elect Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, son of late President Corazon Aquino, gave one of his first interviews to foreign press, to CNN, which can be found in the link.  Although Noynoy does not seem to make many concrete promises for change, he is optimistic.  Coming into the office on the heels of the very unpopular President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who has been blamed by the public for corruption, graft, and terrorist attacks; Mr. Aquino will have his hands full.

Vietnam: Vietnam, in response to growing Chinese military power in the South China Sea, has made a series of major arms deals with Russia.  The largest since the conclusion of the Cold War.   This will include six Kilo-class submarines and up to 20 Su-30 fighter-bombers.   To sweeten the deal, Vietnam is offering to allow Russia a share in its offshore oil and gas industry, to argument hard currency payments.

Mr Loveard said Beijing would probably view Hanoi’s moves as business as usual from an old enemy.

“There’s an argument that Vietnam only turned communist because the yanks painted Uncle Ho [Chi Minh] as one, when he was really a nationalist.”

However, in tempering China’s expansion efforts, Vietnam’s ruling elite are seeking to appease its military, upon which it depends for political survival.

The pro-China faction within the senior ranks of the Community Party of Vietnam (CPV) are strong and pragmatic. Two-way trade between the two countries is expected to top US$25 billion (810 billion baht) in 2010, but Vietnam’s trade deficit with China is massive. It reached $11 billion last year and critics see such numbers as damning evidence of China’s unwanted dominance.

As reported  by this blog  last year, Vietnam, having lived directly in the “shadow of the dragon” for centuries, is particularly sensitive to China’s policies in the South China Sea, especially with Chinese territorial claims in the Spratley and Paracel Islands.  The Russian deal is probably a way for the pro-Chinese factions in the communist leadership to appease the public, anti-Chinese communists, and the military, all of whom tend to be anti-Chinese.   The Vietnamese government, like many governments in the region, is also looking to balance China’s growing influence by establishing stronger relations with the United States:

The surge in defense spending a year ahead of the congress, he said, would be seen in Hanoi’s China-friendly circles as a small price to pay for appearing to stand up to Beijing regardless of the economic and military realities.

It’s a tactic that Vietnam used often during the Cold War, but with an added twist – the idea of a US return to Cam Ranh Bay, the highly strategic deep-water port established by the US during the Vietnam War.

The US Pacific Commander, Admiral Robert Willard, recently made a point of telling the US Congress that US military ties with Vietnam are continuing to improve. Analysts say a US return to Cam Ranh Bay is not improbable.

SNIP

The US has raised the possibility of signing an Acquisition and Cross Service Agreement (ASCA) with Vietnam. This would provide for reciprocal logistical support, supplies and services.

Washington normally saves such agreements for its allies or coalition partners.