Georgia may have once been America’s darling in the Caucasus, but no more. As pressure mounts from within on Georgia’s young President, Mikhail Saakashvili, the political dynamics outside the country seem ever less favorable. First there was the world economic crisis, reducing trade and foreign aid. Then there was the lukewarm attitude toward Georgia on the part of Europe, prompted by Russia’s efforts to isolate Tbilisi politically. Now, an Obama administration focused on Turkey and its fragile rapprochement with Armenia serve to steer attention away from Georgia to nearby countries with less chaotic internal affairs. Last August, John McCain and Joe Biden vied to prove themselves and their respective tickets the better champion of the stalwart Georgians. Now the bloom is off Saakashvili’s “Rose Revolution.”
Russia has reportedly redoubled its efforts to weaken Georgia from within, but it may be pushing on an open door. Saakashvili’s unpopularity appears to be rising even without Moscow taking a direct hand. If Georgia descends further into political uncertainty, Moscow will be the beneficiary — just as it is in Ukraine, home to the fading Orange Revolution. Before Russia, no stranger herself to revolution, can capitalize on the internal weaknesses of her former territories, she must address her own internal weaknesses. Weakened economic and political institutions across a broad stretch of southern Eastern Europe — from Moldova to the Caucasus — are not a harbinger of democratic spring, but fragility and possible upheaval.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
