In an aspect of parliamentary politics that many Americans simply can’t understand, Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) performed worse in general elections than they did four years ago—but this time, get to form their preferred coalition government. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) bested its 2005 total by nearly fifty percent, jumping to 14.5 percent of the vote. Together, the CDU and FDP will form a coalition government, leaving the junior partners of the Grand Coalition, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), in opposition.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s reelection was not surprising—it was always likely she would remain chancellor. The two most significant stories in this election were related: the dismal performance of the SPD, and the gains of Die Linke (The Left), a party composed of reformed Communists and former Social Democrats who believe the SPD has turned their backs on its typical constituency. The bleeding of support from the SPD to Die Linke (and to a lesser extent, Alliance 90/die Grüne, more commonly the Greens) is yet another symptom of the troubles befalling European Social Democrats. Worse for the SPD, in many quarters of Germany die Linke is not perceived as a possible coalition partner in any government, due to their history (born out of the ruling East German Socialist Unity Party).
If the SPD is to ever regain the Chancellorship, it will have to perform significantly better (its 2009 result was the worst in the party’s history). Furthermore, it will either need the Greens to gain a more significant share of the vote, or die Linke to moderate itself (or install new leaders) so that German reservations about the party in government are lessened. (While an SPD-Greens-FDP coalition could theoretically work, the political problems of such an alliance would likely cause the SPD to shed more of its base to die Linke—and that is even if the Greens and the FDP would agree to join a government with the other.)
The best thing for the SPD, likely, is a spell in opposition, where it can regain its voice and purpose. Whether it can accomplish those two goals is unknown. For now, Germany will press forward with a government bent on cutting taxes and reforming the tax code to make it more business friendly. If those policies prove unpopular, the SPD will become more popular—and so will die Linke.
