The Israeli government, settlers, the IDF, Palestinians, the Palestinians Authority, and terrorists all have diferent narratives and motivations on the events of the past few days that left one Israeli killed and six Palestinians dead. This situation brings to light some challenges and problems with the status quo of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Fact: An Israeli settler was shot and killed while driving through the West Bank.
Fact: The Palestinian Authority rounded up 120 militants in the wake of the shooting. The IDF heralded this enforcement as a step forward for the PA security apparatus.
Fact: The IDF entered the West Bank (Nablus) and killed three of the four suspects for the shooting and killed three other militants who were planning a terrorist attack.
Against this backdrop of facts, we also know that terrorism activity still persists, the PA security forces are being developed with external assistance (particularly from the United States), and the Israeli government is stuck between a partial and temporary settlement freeze and attempting to appease and protect the vocal settler community.
The problem in this situation stems directly from expectations of both the Israeli and Palestinians security forces.
On the Palestinian side, Israel expected security forces to round up the militants. The IDF even lauded the efforts of the Palestinians, but the perpetrators of the attacks were still at large a couple days following the shooting attack. Israeli expectations of the PA security forces were not adequately fulfilled.
Moreover, the Palestinian security forces are expected, in the future, to provide stability in a Palestinian state and security for the neighboring state of Israel from terrorist attacks emanating from the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The Palestinian security forces are expected to become more robust and transform into a well-functioning security apparatus.
By the IDF entering the West Bank to round up the militants (after not communicating with Palestinian security forces), the IDF remedied one of the two expectations and undermined the other. The IDF solved the problem temporarily by killing the suspects in the shooting, but in doing so, undercut the PA security apparatus as ineffectual and irrelevant.
A solution to remedy this duality could have been through the IDF providing the PA security forces with the names and locations of the gunmen instead of unilaterally entering the West Bank. It is unclear whether the IDF attempted to give the PA security forces this information, but all signs currently point to no. The IDF wanted to make a statement, which brings us to part B.
Expectations on the IDF include that it will protect the settlers. The volatile Israeli political system is currently torn between proponents of the settlement freeze and opponents who say Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has thrown the settlers under the bus. Facing this criticism, the Israeli government had to show the settlers and their supporters that the IDF would continue to protect the settlements. In doing so, the IDF single-handedly rounded up and killed the alleged gunmen to prove this point.
The IDF entering Nablus was not meant to provide stability in the peace process. It was a political act to assuage the criticisms of domestic opponents to the government. The IDF chose this short-term gain en lieu of potential long-term positive impacts of bolstering the PA security forces. By assisting the PA in developing a security apparatus (think Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad’s institution building plan), the IDF could have used the opportunity to help strengthen the PA security forces by providing it with an easy victory on domestic enforcement.
And all this occurred against the backdrop of suspicion that a third intifada will erupt. Some Palestinians are plotting vengeance and clashes are already being reported. Let’s hope this will die down. But, none of the anti-Israel sentiment would occur if the Palestinian security forces would have rounded up the correct militants. Maybe they chose not to; maybe the IDF wanted them to, to no avail; or maybe the IDF wanted to make its own statement. Either way, a better solution was easily available.
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