If the Georgian-Russian ceasefire takes hold — and CNN, WSJ and others are reporting right now that Russian troops continue to advance within Georgia proper — resolving who actually keeps the peace will be a challenging issue. Barack Obama called yesterday for “a genuine international peacekeeping force.” This would clearly be a step in the right direction, since the presence of Russian “peacekeepers” in South Ossetia over the past 16 years has been more an instrument of Russian occupation than a neutral, unbiased buffer.
The danger here is that Russia has adopted a flexible definition of sovereignty and territorial integrity, as seen in Medvedev's comments at his press conference yesterday with French President Sarkozy:
…No doubt we recognize the sovereignty of Georgia and the independence of the Georgian authorities and other countries, as well. But, this does not mean that sovereign state has or should have the possibility to do whatever it wants, even sovereign countries have to answer for their actions.
Now, with regard to territorial integrity, that is one concept. And if sovereignty is based on the will of the people and on the constitution, then territorial integrity as a rule can be demonstrated by the actual facts on the ground. And despite the fact that on paper it may look fine, life is much more complicated. And the question of territorial integrity is a very difficult and complicated question which cannot be solved in any demonstrations or in parliament even, or in meetings among leaders…
If Russian troops continue to occupy any part of Georgia, prospects for a fair rendering of the “will of the people” of South Ossetia or Abkhazia are slim. In the six-point ceasefire agreement, Georgia promises to return its military forces to “their normal bases,” while Russian troops must only withdraw to “[their] lines prior to the start of hostilities.” Further, the agreement states that, “while awaiting an international mechanism, Russian peacekeeping forces will implement additional security measures on a temporary basis.”
The longer it takes to establish an “international mechanism,” the more likely it is that Russia's “temporary” added security measures will prove to be a further extended occupation, changing even more facts on the ground.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
