Military Build-Up in the East China Sea

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently traveled to China in hopes of lowering tensions and reestablishing high level bilateral military ties between China and the United States.  This comes on the heels of increasing border tension between China and its neighbors.  One of those neighbors , America’s strongest ally in the region, is Japan.   The Japanese  are not only vexed by China’s recent behavior during the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands Incident, but  they are also growing increasingly  concerned by China’s military build-up close to the disputed island chain.  This is something that also concerns the United States, as the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton “clarified” the Obama Administrations Policy in regard to Japanese security and the islands:

…the United States viewed the islands as protected under the terms of its defense treaty with Japan, which means it will defend them from any foreign attack.

China has been increasing the number of patrol vessels launched to the Senkakus, but most of them are small, under 1,000 tons, and also old in comparison to Japanese patrols.  However, China is in the process of building several 5,000 ton ships, and is even calling on civilian volunteer vessels to aid in the patrol of the area.

In response, Japan is formulating new military guidelines for its Self Defense Force, which will redefine the island nation’s security goals away from its  historic Cold War focus on Russia in favor of concentrating, on what Tokyo sees as a growing Chinese threat, at Japan’s southern border.  Part of this new strategy will require greater integration of Japanese and American military forces in the East China Sea, as well as the purchase of new jet fighters and submarines.

So what does the China government do while meeting with Secretary Gates in this tense environment?  Oh, just executes the maiden launch of a new Chinese “stealth” jet fighter (the J20).   Of course, China denies any intentional symbolism, saying the test flight was unrelated to the visit.  What is unclear is if civilian or military officials ordered the flight.  It is quite possible that  the civilian officials meeting with Gates really were surprised by the test flight.  Inside the Chinese government, there is long been tension between hawkish military leaders, who are at best tepid in building stronger ties with the U.S., and more moderate civilian leadership.   It is certain that the United States is paying close attention to the “gap in communications”, and assessing how much control the military wing of the CCP has over these matters, something key to any future talks.   This could have been  a show of “muscle” intended for a domestic audience  that has been increasingly critical of Beijing’s response to the United States in regard to Chinese security   In any case,  the actual deployment of this jet fighter is some years off.

In regard to the actual meeting between Gates and his Chinese counterparts, very little was accomplished.  Bilateral military ties between the two nations were cut by China a year ago, after the last round of American arm sales to Taiwan, which totaled US$6.4 billion.  Gate’s Chinese counterpart did vaguely give support for his proposals, but Chinese Minister of Defense Liang Guanglie said that the onus is on the United States to change it’s policies toward China.

Meaning:

When it broke ties the second time last January, the PLA laid out three conditions that Washington had to fulfill if it wanted the suspension lifted. The United States, it said, had to stop weapons sales to Taiwan, end its naval and air-based surveillance activities off China’s coast and do away with laws and regulations that restrict U.S. interaction with China’s military.

Minister Liang also stated that Chinese military modernization was not a threat to the U.S. as the technological gap between the two nations armed forces is still very great.  Some of those modernizations include the development of aircraft carriers and mid-air refueling capabilities that will enable greater force projection ability.  China has also purchased an old air craft carrier from Russia, the Varyag, in 1998, which  is currently being refitted.  It is unclear if this carrier will be put into active service or only used for training purposes.   There is also, at least, one other carrier being constructed in Shanghai, which is thought to be completed by 2014.

The U.S. appears to be so focused on establishing clear lines of communication with China, so that miscalculations are avoided, and that both nations have a framework to discuss sensitive issues of regional security, Taiwan, North Korea,  and nuclear weapons.  The real question is,  is the U.S. talking to the right people?  It is possible the military has made its displeasure  with Washington’s lack of response to its conditions clear, and an internal power struggle between civilian and military leadership makes reestablishing communications a nominal event.  The situation might only grow more hazy and dangerous with the change in Chinese civilian leadership in 2012.