About a month ago we discussed the implications for new Russian presidency of Dmitry Medvedev for Central Asia, Russian domestic politics, and the world in general. Would Medvedev be Putin's puppet? Would he be a liberalizer? What could we expect from him regarding relations between Russia and the Central Asian states? We are about to find out.
Medvedev is scheduled to make his first foreign diplomatic visit to Astana, Kazakhstan on May 22-23 and President Nazarbayev (Here's a little background analysis) has already made a few phone calls to the new leader to open up discussions on ‘bilateral relations and international issues.’ (a little vague) However, Sergei Blagov has reported that the Kazak defense department has already signed numerous lucrative contracts with Russian arms powerhouse Rosoboronexport and other Kazak officials reiterated the two nations 'strategic’ alliance. Blagov highlighted growing trade between the two states in recent years featuring double digit increases.
But things are not getting too cozy; as the issue of oil contracts, prices, and pipelines looks to be a clashing point between the two resource-rich states and this could be a harbinger for Uzbek and Turkmenistan-Russian relations in the Medvedev term as well. Blagov reports that Russia desperately desires to increase output from the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, which would continue to orientate Kazak resources towards Russia, but it appears that Nazarbayev has not given in. Medvedev was a long time member of Gazprom's board, including its chairman, and it appears likely that he will want to 'tighten the knot’ on the region's energy resources. Russia is clearly concerned that Kazak and CA other resource-rich states will start moving more and more of the oil and gas towards Europe directly through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, already functioning, and the Trans-Caspian, not yet a reality, pipelines.
Analyst Sergei Blagov seems to think that Medvedev and Russia can have some success in this energy politics, but as we have discussed before, Stephen Blank argues that Russia's position in this regard is growing weaker and weaker, while China and the CA states gain still greater leverage. We will have to wait and see how Medvedev's visit to Astana, and his following trip to gas-rich Turkmenistan, work out. Medvedev will not let Russia's resource monopoly fall without a fight.
I would like to quickly draw attention to New York University's Political Science MA Program's online Journal of Political Inquiry, which features an article on US/Pakistan relations, Iran/US relations and the policy of containment, Albania's process of democratization, and a short book review of Paul Berman's Terror and Liberalism, by yours truly.
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