The world is always looking for a crystal ball…a window into the future, and the fact that we don't have one is all too often our scapegoat for not responding quickly to a crisis. “We just didn't see it coming…We just where not prepared.”, are almost infamous words in the world of international development. The world cannot deny that we miss the signs of crisis time and again, and our failure to act only deepens situations and suffering. Often we do see the impending emergency, and we still turn a blind eye, hopping that when we look back it will all be a dream, or simply just go away. Sadly the world does not just fix it's self, and mankind depends on their fellow man for assistance in a time of need.
This is not to say that there are not people and groups who are dedicated and working to prevent crisis, there are, and they doing their best with the limited resources they have. However they cannot win the fight alone, and true crisis prevention must come from a global level. It appears that we are not a society which responds as well to 'signs’, as to antiquated predictions, but a society that needs cutting edge statistical predictions and methodology which are fully backed by the international community, in order to collectively work to prevent a formidable crisis. Therefore the question is, if we know it's going to happen will we act in a more positive and preventative manner?
In recent news a group of economists in Kenya, say they have developed a model which can forecast severe child malnutrition, leading to famine, some three months prior to the crisis. “Our forecasts are likely to be correct more than 75 percent of the time,” said Andrew Mude, the leading author of the study. However early warning experts are cautious to respond, “The key issue for early warning is that it needs to link to response. Producing information with this new approach without understanding the previous obstacles to improved response will only solve half the problem.”, according to Grainne Moloney, Nutrition Project Manager for the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation's Food Security Analysis Unit in Somalia. (Model to predict child malnutrition)
Therefore while prediction and forecasting are of the utmost necessity in crisis prevention, they are not to be taken as a saving grace, and will do little good if we are not prepared to act, and ready to act. Thus systems and methodologies for quick action in wake or anticipation of a crisis, must be establish worldwide, and the ability to activate such methodologies therefore must contain the capacity to be easily and quickly initiated.
