There is a very nice essay on climate change in the NYT this morning in a somewhat unlikely spot: the “Our Towns” column about what’s going on in various locations around the region outside the big city. Peter Applebome’s excellent stories are usually focused on local political, social and cultural highlights. Ignoring the Planet Won’t Fix It, though, notes a new study out from the National Center for Atmospheric Research that zeroes in on the persistent, pervasive and pernicious drought that is going to afflict most of North America, in all likelihood, within the next 20 years. He bemoans the lack of attention to this problem, particularly because, as Applebome says, it’s become a wedge issue of great value for Republicans and their Tea Party wing. (See also Climate Change Doubt Is Tea Party Article of Faith from last week.)
“The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades…” reads the press release. The study itself, Drought under global warming: a review, says: “Climate models project increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20-50 years.”
Here’s what the world might well look like just 20 to 30 years from now.
But even in the drying West, in the American Gulf Coast where storms are intensifying, and in the Breadbasket where the US Department of Agriculture identifies potential future difficult if not dire conditions, the disconnect appears to be enormous. How do you reach people with the message that climate change, if it isn’t already doing so, is going to change their lives? That’s a question that scientists and educators are trying to answer.
This recent article from Nature describes some of those efforts. One politically conservative group, hunters and anglers, have become convinced, on the whole, that climate change is effecting their worlds now. Kevin Coyle, vice-president for education and training at the four-million member National Wildlife Federation said: “These are people who have been observing the landscape their whole lives, and they are seeing changes.” Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, is very involved in outreach. “…in the future, climate education campaigns will need to be fine-tuned for specific audiences, Leiserowitz says, and scientists and educators need to start thinking strategically about building momentum over decades, not years.” We’re working on it, Dr. Leiserowitz. Hopefully, we can continue to break through some of the barriers of culture, politics, and economics.
