Israelis on both sides of the political spectrum always lament that high Arab birth rates represent an existential threat to Israel that dwarfs any terror strike or Iranian nuclear weapons program. These pessimists (of which I’m one) contend that non-Jewish Arabs procreate at much higher rates than Jews. Due to the semi-democratic nature of Israel, Arabs will eventually compose a majority of the population and remove the title of “Jewish State” from Israel. This outcome would re-establish the Middle East as an Arab (and likely Muslim) region where Jews would have no right to land and fear for their safety.
However, journalist Yair Lapid says not so fast. While this threat may have been accurate in the 1970s, Lapid contends that Arab birth-rates continue to drop while Jewish births are on the rise. Using the latest available data, Jewish women birth approximately 3.14 children while Arabs (excluding Bedouin in the Negev) have 3.2 children per woman. Including Bedouin, the Arab birth-rate increases to 3.9 children per woman. These figures- alongside the trend of increased Jewish births and decreased Arab births- completely dismantle the demographic myth. Lapid quips,
“What can you do; over time, even the Arabs around here adopt the childbearing patterns of Ashkenazi Jews.”
Moreover, Lapid states that orthodox Jewish women birth approximately 7 children. Eventually, Israel will no longer be a Jewish democracy, but rather akin to an ultra-orthodox Jewish state. Lapid jokes again,
“The only thing the other Jews need to do is to stand on the sidelines and cheer on the ultra-Orthodox women residing in Bnei Brak.”
Even though Lapid claims to dismantle the birth-rate threat to Israel, these demographic changes instill a sense of urgency in the peace process. The longer Israel waits to establish a Palestinian state, the tougher the situation. Let’s hope Israeli leaders do not dismiss peace process urgency after reading today’s paper.
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