Kazakhstan & Turkmenistan: Watershed events, genius leaders, new diplomacy–and maybe, an economic community

On May 28, the President of Turkmenistan,  Mr. Berdymuhammedov, visited Kazakhstan to engage in bilateral meetings with Kazakhstan's President Nazarbaev and crew.  The news wires are more or less blipping through these developments as they do most short news stories in Central Asia, but in aggregate these articles are describing a watershed event.  I’m so excited about this I’m finding it hard not to put exclamation points after every sentence–that is not a joke.  There are some real opportunities presented from this meeting.

1. Return to Multilateral Diplomacy:
Turkmenistan is going to re-join the CIS under observer status, an organization it abandoned in 1995.  While one cannot forecast the extent of this new diplomatic multilateralism after a scant two days, it could conceivably extend, over time, Turkmenistan could well receive new funding and new projects with collective security organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Community, the Eurasian Development Bank (a joint Russian-Kazakhstani venture) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).  It might even ultimately attract Turkmenistan's participation in Central Asia's water regimes, and the common economic sphere which Kazakhstan has been assiduously promoting.

Turkmenistan will host the next meeting of the CIS in Ashgabat.  In 2001, the previous president barred CIS meetings in Turkmenistan.

This new development paves the way for further regional bilateralism, along the order of the agreements that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan made at this meeting:

2. Kazakhstan & Turkmenistan's new bilateral relations:
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan agreed that the level of trade relations between their two states was woefully insufficient, at a turnover of USD 150 million.  They signed numerous bilateral trade agreements, including one on trade, science, technical and cultural cooperation; border coordination activities; standardized measurements, certification, and accreditation; and other items that make the cooperative basis for actual trade.  Transit and transportation agreements were also signed, for a potential bus route from Turkmenbashi [City] to Atyrau; highway reconstruction between the two states; and a new rail line.  Earlier, new air transport agreements, after a two-year hiatus, were reinstated.

3.  Bilateralism also leads to multilateral trade:
Last of all, Kazakhstan's bilateral diplomacy with Turkmenistan could lead to the development of the Trans-Caspian pipeline, which will bring Turkmen gas westward to the SCP lines that run to Erzerum.  A projected signing date was mentioned in September, 2007.

In short: these bread-and-butter bilateral arrangements create a concrete basis for ending Turkmenistan's isolationism.  Mr. Berdymuhammedov had essentially committed to turnaround in Turkmenistan's diplomatic stance, in league with one of the world's best diplomats, Mr. Nazarbaev.  This bilateral relationship opens a lot of possibilities for the entire Central Asian trade framework.

In one article in Kazakhstan Today, Mr. Berdymuhammedov called Kazakhstan's President a “great, genius leader“.  Turkmenistan.ru noted that Mr. Nazarbaev was happy to welcome Turkmenistan's President to “Kazakhstan's soil”.   Sounds encouraging–I certainly have my fingers crossed.

RFE/RL Interview of Daniel Kimmage on the meeting's historic significance