Israel: Year in Review

Overview:

The year started with a bang, or many bangs to be precise. The events of late December- mid January one year ago set the stage for relations between Israel and the rest of the world. Israel launched Operation Cast Lead on the Gaza Strip to attempt to end the incessant rocket fire into southern Israel. The country used a military strategy to prevent the possibility of any soldier abductions by Hamas, thereby resulting in the air force playing a prominent role as opposed to ground troop incursions. Both the United Nations and Arab countries condemned Israel, causing tension between Israel and Turkey, the cancellation of anticipated peace talks between Syria and Israel, and accelerated tensions between Hamas and both the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. Against the back drop of disunity among the Palestinians, new U.S. President Barack Obama attempted to restart negotiations between newly elected Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who was forced to forge a coalition with right-wing groups, and PA President Mahmoud Abbas, who subsequently threatened to resign at the beginning of next year. The peace process, Palestinian reconciliation, Syrian peace, and efforts to secure the release of Gilad Shalit largely remained stagnant. However, one front did show significant developments- the Iranian nuclear threat. The Israeli military mobilized parts of its naval fleet, performed preparedness exercises, asserted its right to defend the country, and pushed the United States to act on the issue.

Person of the Year:

The FPA Israel Blog person of the year is not U.S. President Barack Obama or any of his surrogates who pressured Israel to thwart settlement activity. It’s not Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu who acknowledged the goal of obtaining an independent Palestinian state and is being pulled between domestic, pro-settler factions and international pressure to freeze all settlement activity. It’s not “kingmaker” Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman who threw his weight behind Netanyahu to establish a Likud, and not Kadima, led government. It’s not Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas or Prime Minster Salam Fayyad, who developed an extraordinary plan to take ownership of state building efforts through institution building. All those would make acceptable, albeit predictable, choices.

Instead, we only heard directly from this person once this year, but those words resounded with Israelis and his supporters fueled domestic turmoil and debate. Abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit has been in captivity since 2006. His capture resulted in domestic and military readjustments by Israel. On the military front, the IDF continues to fear losing another soldier and Israeli citizens to terrorists. The government authorized the IDF to use aerial force on its attacks on the Gaza Strip. The strike on Gaza, which resulted in what many international critics called an unnecessary loss of life, halted the Syrian peace process, produced a row with Turkey, and led the United Nations to investigate. Domestically, supporters of his release pressured both outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Netanyahu to swap terrorists held in Israeli prisons for Shalit. Meanwhile, opponents rallied, saying a trade would encourage terrorists to attempt and abduct more soldiers and result in the release of dangerous terrorists back into the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Similarly, many international officials, notably Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, attempted to use their influence to secure Shalit’s release. At this juncture, the Israeli government could be nearing completion of a deal to free Shalit and after over three years in captivity, he’ll be returned to his family. The failure of a deal would result in resumed domestic debate on the issue but also represent a severe blow to negotiations with Hamas over Shalit’s release. Of greatest note, Israel swapped dozens of female prisoners for a video showing Shalit is still alive. Regardless of the position of Israelis on the prisoner exchange, the video resounded among Israelis, who saw not only a scared young man, but the possibility of their sons and brothers standing in his shoes. Gilad Shalit, and the issue of his release, influenced every facet of Israeli politics including military strategy, foreign policy, the peace process, and domestic stability, all while touching hearts and souls of Israelis from all backgrounds and political persuasions.

Most Unexpected Event:

How often do you hear about a leader -but especially a Palestinian leader- voluntarily stepping down? When Mahmoud Abbas said he would no longer serve as Palestinian Authority President over frustrations with the peace process, he threw open the door for another Palestinian leader to take over sovereignty efforts and, if successful, become a legend in Arab and Palestinian circles for generations to come.

What to Watch for in 2010:

Peace Process: In two words- who knows? Too many factors and too many variables will affect this front. U.S. involvement and concessions the Obama Administration can elicit from Israelis, Palestinians, and the Arab world will shape this debate. The right-wing Likud-led coalition could easily collapse in the event Israel agrees to certain concessions. The status of Palestinian reconciliation and pending Palestinian elections will either establish a negotiating partner for Israel, resume the status quo of stagnation, or create an all-out internal Palestinian struggle for domination. Any major military action –either involving strikes on Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, or Iran- will put the peace process on the back burner. Conversely, developments in peace negotiations with Syria or improved relations with the Gulf States could help pave the way for a long-awaited peace deal.

Palestinian Reconciliation: Palestinian elections are currently slated for the beginning of next year. The winner is likely to try and unite the Hamas-led government in the Gaza Strip with the West Bank’s Palestinian Authority. The success of that effort will hinge almost entirely on who wins and the role Abbas intends on continuing to play in the Palestinian politics. Some of the potential candidates (ie. Marwan Barghouti) could potentially unite the two factions while other candidates (ie. Mohammed Dahlan) would retain limited, if any, credibility from Hamas and fail on this front.

Political Stability: The coalition cobbled together by Netanyahu includes some parties that could bolt at any time. It’s happened before and could easily happen again. In particular, Israel Beitenu (the right-wing party led by Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman who could step down due to a corruption probe) is gaining strength in the country and holds a significant role in the formation of Netanyahu’s government. With Israeli Beitenu withdrawing from the government, Netanyahu would have to woo opposition leader Tzipi Livni to forge an alliance, a prospect she would likely deflect, thereby resulting in new elections. Livni’s Kadima party won more seats in the Knesset than Netanyahu’s Likud, and this fact could encourage Livni to strengthen her party’s representation in another round of elections and even potentially result in a Kadima-led coalition taking the reigns of government.

Settlements: A majority of the year will include the implementation of a ‘temporary’ settlement freeze. The freeze, at this point, does not include Jerusalem. Netanyahu is sure to face international pressure to halt construction in Jerusalem and additional Arab evictions from Jerusalem will undoubtedly result in international condemnation and, at worst, spark a third intifada. Further, the United States insisted on a settlement freeze at the beginning of this year and then pulled back on its pressure. The role of settlements in U.S.-Israel relations may resurface in a more prominent position (especially if settlers continue to burn down mosques as they did this month) or take a back seat to other considerations, such as the Iran threat or simply renewing the peace process.

Gilad Shalit: The year began with Israelis unsure of whether abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit was even alive. Late in the year, Israelis, and the Shalit family, received incontrovertible evidence that Shalit is not dead. The end of the year included speculation and apparent preparations for an anticipated prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas and that Shalit is even receiving medical attention in Egypt. This three year-plus saga could end as I write this post. Or, the Shalit family could be forced into one more year of being without their son. In any event, the domestic debate will continue: should Israel do whatever necessary to secure the release of abducted soldiers or would negotiations with terrorists only result in more abductions of Israelis and establish a pattern that results in the release of dangerous terrorists back into society.

The Syrian Front: Both sides, for years, have asserted their desire for the resumption of apeace process, possibly with Turkish mediation efforts. Will this happen again- probably. Will talk turn into action- probably not. But, in the event the two countries do agree to a peace deal, an agreement would hinge on the status of the Golan Heights and result in immense domestic pressure on Netanyahu from both sides of the political spectrum.

Hezbollah: Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has traded barbs with Israeli officials all year and I would not expect any of those threats to stop. However, taking threats to the next level is another story. A prisoner swap for Gilad Shalit may embolden Hezbollah to attempt to kidnap an Israeli soldier on the border or an Israeli citizen in a foreign country (Hezbollah tried this in Sinai and was thwarted by Egyptian security forces). In the event of a successful kidnapping, the Israeli military may not wait three years and could launch an immediate rescue mission/Hezbollah-dismantling campaign that would heighten the situation into an international crisis situation.

The Iran Threat: It does not sound like Iran will heed international threats of increased sanctions and other potential ramifications of continuing to develop a nuclear program. Israel is unlikely to sit idly by for another year as Iran threatens the country with annihilation. If a U.S.-led economic or military campaign to stop Iran’s nuclear program does not commence and Iran continues to defy international pressure, expect Israel to forge a clandestine alliance with some Arab countries (ie. Saudi Arabia) to unilaterally strike Iranian nuclear facilities (although, the United States would likely covertly sign onto any plan).