It is no secret that India believes the Pakistani Intelligence Agency (ISI) sponsors terrorists against Jammu &Kashmir (J&K) in the long drawn border dispute between the two countries. But according to a media report the ISI is planning to use captured Taliban militants to infiltrate and fight the ‘jihad’ against India in J&K. “In a new shift in tactics, Pakistan is planning to push as many as 60 “surrendered” Taliban into Jammu and Kashmir to become part of the “jihad” against India. The ISI is said to have offered the extremists the option of either going to jail or crossing the Line of Control.”
Winter months in the J&K region can be very harsh and pose logistical problems for the military and Border Security Forces. They routinely abandon some forward posts during these months and also reduce surveillance in certain areas. This means that militant intrusions into Indian territory increase as they try to take advantage of the decreased military presence and sneak in during these months. The Kargil war (May-July 1999) between India and Pakistan had its beginnings in such intrusions across the Line of Control (LOC). The recent media report about ISI and Taliban collaboration indicates that infiltrators would again try and use the winter months to cross the LOC. Armed with sophisticated weaponry, communication systems and training the Taliban militants could pose an even greater problem for the Indian military forces.
While it is possible to imagine such a scenario considering prior ISI-Taliban relations in Afghanistan, it does not seem to be a prudent plan. The Indian Ministry of Defense recently recommended strengthening military presence along the border and will also be stationing its upgraded MiG-29s even closer to the Pakistan border. If the Taliban militant’s infiltration leads to another war between India-Pakistan, it would be very difficult for Pakistan to win. Pakistan has so far never won a war against India, and its current economic situation does not seem to suggest that it could sustain one this time either. Pakistan is under pressure from the United States to crack down on terrorists and cooperate with India. “They have been told in no uncertain terms that Pakistan can no longer afford to have two different standards for terrorists one for the terrorists targeting the West and other for the terrorists who use Pakistani soil against India, sources said.” The US has also redirected its war energy towards the Af-Pak region and such a diversion of Taliban militants into India stands the risk of being detected early. In case of a war it seems unlikely that the US would side with Pakistan.
But if the report is true and the Taliban enter Indian territory, it could be a really serious security concern. The Taliban have a history of sustaining against the likes of the US army and this makes them a greater threat than other Pakistani militants who receive a few months of training. They are used to treacherous terrains and weather conditions in Afghanistan and would be able to sustain in the mountains of J&K. The thing that could work against them is their inexperience with the Indian military, and lesser passion for jihad against India. It is unlikely that the Taliban militants share the same hatred for India and desire to acquire J&K as other terrorists attacking India. The effects of a long-term Taliban presence on the social fabric of the region can only be imagined.
So far both the Indian and Pakistan governments have not commented upon the media reports. Whatever their public posture it would not be a good idea to completely disregard the idea that Taliban militants would be used against India.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
