A few months ago, Iran denied that a tweet coming from its President was legitimate by simply denying that the Twitter account issuing the tweet was legitimate. Last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, spoke briefly with a reporter from the Israeli newspaper Maariv, before delivering a speech at the UN Economic, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s General Assembly in Paris. In reference to the West’s aim to prevent a nuclear armed Iran, he said simply that “no military option will ever succeed.”
This statement is, of course, incorrect. While it is probably true that no military option will ever succeed in preventing this Iranian regime from weaponization – it has been argued very powerfully by Jeffrey Goldberg (as well as others) that a military strike could in fact speed up Iran’s weaponization process – it is certainly not true that NO military option could ever succeed. If the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia or some other world actor suddenly began dropping nukes of its own across the Persian state, that would succeed in preventing Iran from achieving weaponization, at least for the foreseeable future. Likewise, a full ground invasion of Iran, or a carpet bombing of Tehran, Bushehr, Fordow, Natanz, etc., would certainly disprove Zarif’s comment. A military option COULD succeed. But Iran understands that these options are not currently on, or really anywhere near, the table. Israel doesn’t have the capacity for it and the US does not seem to have the stomach for it. But should the status quo shift dramatically, due to an act of aggression by Iran or one of it’s proxies, things not currently on the table could be added quickly.
Iran has made it very clear that they are open to negotiation. Their new charm offensive has been extremely productive for them in opening a dialogue with the West (which is making Israel nervous). But part of these efforts has been making for awkward situations between Iranian officials and the mullahs in Iran. Zarif, as well as many other ministers, are openly and eagerly using social media sites that are banned in Iran. The FM has also denied Iranian Holocaust denial, explaining those claims were limited to past President Ahmadinejad, and are not widespread beliefs in Iran, despite numerous comments from the Ayatollah on the subject and the fact that Iran has been host to entire conferences dedicated to Holocaust denial. Then, enwrapped in the throws of his charm offensive, he made a quick comment to an Israeli reporter. It was an altogether innocuous statement (who wouldn’t claim the ineffectiveness of threat during a time of diplomatic initiative?). But rather than the Iranian regime standing up and agreeing with the assessment, or even doubling down on it as might have been expected, they have simply denied that Zarif made the statement, claiming instead that the story was “fabricated.” Bear in mind that Maariv is not some unsourced, political blog site. Maariv is a daily print that has been in circulation since 1948. It is extremely reputable.
Hamid Reza Emadi, newsroom director of Iranian-based Press TV, says that “the Israeli claim that Maariv has interviewed Dr. Zarif is aimed at undermining the morale of the Iran negotiating team by strengthening the hands of their vocal critics at home.”
It seems that Zarif’s comment should have empowered the Iranian negotiating team, not undermined them. After all, he was stating that diplomacy is the only option, thus indirectly showing his support for their efforts. But if parties in Iran chose to see his comment as undermining or somehow inappropriate, their displeasure should be with Zarif. Rather they rejected that the comment was ever made. From a journalistic standpoint, they are trying to literally shoot the messenger. (A claim like this, if true, could easily end careers.)
Iran is trying desperately to be taken as an honest and reliable partner on the world stage. And their efforts have been paying off. The regime has been showing great leniency to its newly-elected politicians, then simply issuing denials as needed, however absurd the premise. If they cannot even be honest about a passing comment to a journalist, or a tweet wishing Jews a Happy New Year, how can they be taken seriously at the negotiating table? Iran is at a crossroads and it is currently trying to split the difference.
Follow me on twitter @jlemonsk.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
