At The Washington Post Michael Gerson worries that internal politics in Southern Sudan will prove to undermine or even destroy the region’s prospects for independence. It’s a legitimate concern, but the question I have is whether hints of unrest or even division would provide Khartoum with the pretext to cancel the independence referendum that is supposed to come early next year. This month’s elections across Sudan will certainly go a long way in determining South Sudan’s future, I just wonder if the only factor that really matters might not be Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s capriciousness.