Indictments have been issued in the investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Four members of Hizballah are reportedly named in the case and the Lebanese government has a month to make arrests, after which the sealed indictments will become public.
The indictments come at a particularly tense time for Lebanon, both internally and externally. The country is divided over the newly formed Mikati government. Syria, yielding tremendous influence in Lebanon, faces escalating domestic instability. Iran, Hizballah’s chief patron, is undergoing a strangely public power struggle between the President and the Supreme Leader.
Perhaps the timing is just a coincidence, but the indictments seem to come when they would do maximum damage. Sunnis in Lebanon, already concerned with the treatment of Sunnis in Syria under the Assad regime, are upset about being marginalized by the new Hizballah-led government. The indictments of Hizballah members in the murder of a prominent Sunni politician, will likely further stoke flames.
Hizballah knew for months that its people would be named and launched a public relations campaign to discredit the tribunal as an “Israeli plot”. On the surface, the group appears to be in a strong position, having made significant political gains in the past year. Yet the Assad regime, a key supporter, is dealing with its greatest internal challenge in 30 years, and the opposition March 14 coalition is planning to retake the government.
Internally, Hizballah is rumored to face significant morale and counterintelligence problems. The group is said to be infiltrated by spies and they just recently reported they had uncovered members working with the CIA. It is unclear how Hizballah will react to the news of the indictments if the group feels backed into a corner.
Submission could signal weakness, defiance could trigger animosity and further isolation from Arab Sunnis. This last bit is very important because if Assad were to fall and a Sunni-led regime were to take its place, Hizballah would be cut off from Iran and face significant isolation in the region.
How Hizballah reacts could rest on the fate of the Assad regime. If the group thinks Assad is likely to stay, they might stand firm. If they think Assad’s day are numbered, they may acquiesce to the new political reality.
It must be remembered that Hizballah is still the most powerful military force in Lebanon and is very strong in the new government. These two factors should buy the group some time as it tries to formulate a strategy. However, given the increasing Sunni frustration in Lebanon and the challenged position of the Assad regime, the clock is ticking.
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