H1N1: Trends & Lessons, Part II

A Pentagon study published late last year lumped Mexico with Pakistan as countries prone to “rapid and sudden collapse.”  This report, The Joint Operating Environment 2008, or “The JOE,” gave weight to a view coalescing in the US since 2007: Mexico was teetering on the brink of becoming a “failed state.” Armed with this government-endorsed ammunition, prognosticators warned of Mexico’s demise, including forecasts that President Obama would have to “fully militarize” the border and possibly invade Mexico before he leaves office.  NPR suggested a humanitarian crisis could emerge, with millions of Mexicans fleeing north.  An implosion of this magnitude would surely destabilize American border states, with more dour effects to follow. Such assessments often mixed security concerns with fear mongering, and at times a tinge of racism, to argue for hawkish policy shifts by the US. However, many perverted the context of the JOE. So, for the sake of accuracy, here is the relevant part:

In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico…(As opposed to Pakistan) The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.

This is the only paragraph in the 50-page study that discusses Mexico.  One should also bear in mind the purpose of the report is to weigh potential threats to US security over the next quarter century.

Undoubtedly, ongoing drug wars are ravaging several parts of Mexico and this is cause for concern. More than 9,000 people have been killed since 2007 as a result of drug-related violence.  The pace of gang killings has only slowed of late, as more than 50,000 soldiers and federal police have been nestled into the most violent parts of the country. In addition to the immediate security challenges, Mexico’s reliance on the faltering US economy—over 80% of its trade takes place with America—prevents it from growing its way out of socioeconomic strife, as may be the case in China or India.

The situation in Mexico is brighter than this portrayal. The murder rate in Mexico (11:100,000) is twice that of the United States, but this figure is lower than murder rates in Brazil, El Salvador and Colombia, to name just a few. While drug cartels in Tijuana and Juárez pose an enormous security problem, in recent months the governments’ efforts have achieved a 25% decline in deaths over the same period last year.  Simultaneously, the Mexican government has responded to the outbreak of H1N1, in part by virtually shutting down Mexico City, the world’s second-largest metropolitan center, for five days.  And on May 26^th the Mexican government carried out the biggest raid since the drug war began, targeting local officials in the state of Michoacán.  As covered by The Los Angeles Times, the federal operation arrested 27 officials, including ten mayors and one judge, suspected of supporting the drug trade. This raid is unlikely to hamper the flow of drugs through Mexico, but it is important for removing the political cover enjoyed by the cartels.

Over the past month, Mexico has demonstrated why it is not a failed state. Failed states such as Somalia, or even Pakistan or Afghanistan, cannot stifle gangs, terrorists or pirates, nor can they muster an effective response to public health problems. The ability to address such disparate problems speaks to the power of the federal government. Mexico is not a hub of anarchy where lawlessness reigns, but a country ensnared by proximity to an epicenter of drug consumption, an epicenter that also produces massive quantities of arms but needs to do more to monitor their sale. Corruption persists among bureaucrats, local officials and law enforcement because of low pay and scant advancement opportunities for those who lack political connections, but recent events indicate the government is making in-roads into the corruption dilemma.  From America, overreaction is the second-worst response to Mexico’s plight, following only ignorance, because it fuels xenophobia and nationalist rhetoric that throws moderation and nuanced engagement to the wind.