Germany post Baden-Wurttemberg

Elections in two German states (Länder) led to one historic result while confirming the national government’s unpopularity and its perceived mishandling of a number of (inter)national and local issues. A historically unprecedented development is the emergence of the Greens as a third major party which will lead a coalition on eye level – there is only one seat difference between the partners – with the SPD. No Green party member has ever served as the Prime Minister of a German Land before. The CDU’s loss of government power in Baden-Württemberg for the first time in 58 years is a rude wake-up call for Merkel’s coalition in Berlin. Even worse a 2.5% gain and close second place finish in concurrent elections in Rheinland-Pfalz was celebrated by a jubilant regional CDU leader yesterday shedding a light on the dire state of the party these days.

The national coalition partners – CDU/CSU and FDP – in a way were hit by a perfect storm with current issues significantly contributing to structural long-term shifts and a strategic dilemma which leads the former – self-proclaimed – Regierungspartei (government party) that has governed post-war (West-)Germany for most of the 60 years of its existence directly into an impasse. Baden-Württemberg yesterday became at once a symbol for the CDU’s problems as it showcased the emergence of a new major player (even eine Volkspartei?) in German politics. The Green party has moved from being the pariah of the German party system (in the late 80s/early 90s), to becoming a junior partner in the Schröder-led, SPD dominated government (in late 90s/early 21st century), to emerging as a potential (or regional) third Volkspartei in 2011. Its once unique thematic specialty, environmental protection, has become a rallying cry of German politicians of every stripe and color. The Greens have truly arrived in the centre of Germany’s society (in der Mitte der Gesellschaft).

Let’s recapitulate.

The CDU (and to a lesser degree most of this is true for the FDP as well, which to some extent is seen as an addendum to the CDU only, a more radical one maybe but nothing more than that) was hit in three if not four ways in the elections in Baden-Württemberg but also in Rheinland-Pfalz and on a local level in Hessen:

a) The national government, the supposed dream coalition of which CDU/CSU and FDP had been yearning during the years of the grand coalition, has been a mess ever since it came into power. Accused of the German equivalent of porkbarrel policy and facing personnel setbacks on all levels (losing, in no particular order, the Prime Minister of Hessen, the Federal President and two Defence Ministers) the government has stumbled along. Now,

b) the horrifying tsunami in Japan and the following nuclear meltdown has prompted another chaotic – opportunistic? – reaction with the government denouncing the supposed security of German nuclear plants that had been a pillar of German conservative and liberal (in the European sense) thought for decades, in the process caricaturising the only five-months old supposedly inherently necessary decision to prolong the use of nuclear energy for at least twelve years. Similar disarray surrounded Germany’s spectacular abstention in the UN Security Council in the vote installing a no-fly zone over Libya, allying the country with the BRICs and against France, the UK, and the US. It was especially the nuclear energy question which had an impact on yesterday’s elections though as it was considered the most important topic by voters in both Landtagswahlen (regional elections) with voters in Baden-Württemberg trusting the Greens best to handle the issue (53% approval, compared to only 18% and 11% for the CDU and SPD respectively)

c) The above issue only served as an amplifier to underlying structural shifts that have weakened the CDU, while strengthening the Greens though. Quite simply speaking, Germany has changed culturally and demographics contribute to this development. The C in the CDU’s title (which stands for Christlich, the Christian faith) used to assure the Catholic and in general religious vote for the party. That vote is in the process of dying out. Religion hardly even matters in German politics anymore and even the few – youngish – religious Germans don’t feel obliged to vote the ‘Christian party’ anymore. The CDU vote was above average in only one age category, voters above 60 trusted it with 49% of its vote. In every other age group the divide between CDU and Greens only diminished even further with both parties polling over 30% (for the most part). In other words, CDU voters will decrease (read: die) at a faster rate than Green party supporters. An additional cultural/demographic shift to note is related to the CDU’s traditional stance of skepticism towards foreigner’s integration into Germany (Kohl’s government until 1998 failed to realize that these guest workers (Gastarbeiter) would not just pack up and leave at some point but were here to stay, had brought their wives, that a large percentage of perceived foreigners, Turks, at that point had in fact never lived outside of Germany in the first place. Yet, in a country where almost 20% of the population has some migratory background – a number which only rises the younger the age group that is being looked at – populist attempts to incite fears of a Turkish takeover due to the supposed illness of the main Green candidate behind which the Turkish-German co-President of the Green party were looming might pay off to some extent in the short run, it is simply not sustainable in the long run.

d) Finally, the CDU is faced with a strategic dilemma in the new volatile, post-reunification Berlin Republic – and as opposed to the more stable three- or four -party in any case two-camp Bonn Republic. In a five party parliament, there seems to be only one viable coalition option for the – still strongest – German party. Apart from its longtime ally the FDP, the CDU has not managed to explore further possibilities. A CDU-Green coalition in Hamburg recently failed and the rekindled nuclear energy debate has only served to drive them apart even further. The CDU might end up as the biggest fraction in parliaments all over Germany for some time to come, but the FDP’s weakness combined with the SPD and Green parties complementary strengths will make it very difficult for the CDU to lead a majority coalition anywhere.

Apart from the CDU’s weakness it is the Green party’s strength which has to be noted following yesterday’s electoral polls. Yes, the nuclear issue as mentioned above contributed to its astounding success in Baden-Württemberg and its good showing in Rheinland-Pfalz. Yet, it might be results in local elections in Hessen where they obtained upward of 10% as well that symbolizes best the solid hold the Green party has gained on the spot of the third most important party in German politics. In urban, young and educated settings it can and will compete as an equal with the SPD and CDU (and the Left in Berlin) from here on out. Soon to govern as the majority leader in Baden-Württemberg, they pose a sizable threat to the SPD-mayor (the equivalent of a Prime Minister since it is a city-state) in Berlin in the fall as well.

Apart from the emergence of the Green party as more than a bit player then what does this mean for policy in Germany? First of all, and most obviously, nuclear energy is dead. These electoral campaigns effectively played out as a referendum on the future of nuclear power plants in Germany and everybody knows who won. Even hardline FDP-representatives in TV-talk show circuit last night admitted as much. What else? The Merkel government will stand pat simply because of its lack of options. Most important will be to closely watch the Greens and how their policy ideas outside of energy and environmental issues develop in order to better assuage how a potential eye level (or close to it) SPD-Green(-Left?) coalition would act from 2013 on.