Georgia headed for violent confrontation as protests continue

Protest rallies in Georgia, begun over the weekend in Tbilisi and Batumi, seem to be headed for violent confrontation today (Wednesday afternoon in the US, early Thursday morning in Tbilisi) after apparently failing to achieve the goals of their organizers or to attract widespread public support.

It’s not that the latest opposition movement (called the People’s Assembly) can’t light a fire under their supporters and turn out several thousand protesters at their demonstrations.  The Public Assembly and the various other incarnations of opposition umbrella groups—all with inevitable ties to former Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze—are certainly skilled at doing this.

We’ve now seen a weekend of impressive-looking rallies at Freedom Square with thousands of participants, the usual indignant speeches in front of Parliament, and the intimidation at Georgia Public Broadcasting (GPB), perceived by many as slanting their coverage of domestic politics in favor of President Saakashvili.

And as in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Georgian opposition uses language borrowed from the Arab Spring: today’s rallies were supposed to be a “Day of Rage,” for example, which would lead to the overthrow (or resignation) of the president.

So the usual script has been adhered to.  Aside from the street theatre at Parliament and GPB, several blocks of Rustavelli Avenue has been virtually taken over, and Nino Burjanadze makes declarations that, if not exactly recalling Joan of Arc, are meant to convey her revolutionary zeal.

As the number of protesters outside GPB began to diminish on 21 May, Burjanadze reminded her supporters that the Rose Revolution began in much the same way, but led quickly to the overthrow of President Eduard Shavardnadze.

She then added something that may come back to haunt her: “I will bite my fingers if this government stays in power; remember my words.”

I’m not quite sure if she means she will bite her fingers off, or simply take a playful nip at them.

Press reports indicate that police used tear gas and truncheons to break up protesters at GPB on Sunday, although local sources tell me that several hundred remain at the scene.  Christian Science Monitor reporter Fred Weir wrote a useful analysis here on Monday, although I disagree with his assessment that Nino Burjanadze is seen by Georgians as “one of the…most level-headed of the fractious opposition leaders.”

The arrests in 2009 of nine members of Burjanadze’s party on illegal gun purchases (arrests that Burjanadze described as a government “campaign of terror” against her) has not helped her image with most Georgians, who increasingly view her as too radical to govern.

The Georgia Times reports that entrances and exits at the parliament building are now closed due to protesters’ blocking the entrance, a standard opposition tactic over the past two years.

Go here for a very good overview of the current demonstrations from RFE/RL, and make sure to click on the “flash analysis” video interview with journalist Koba Liklikadze.

My own view is that the latest rallies are yet another symptom of the fractured landscape of Georgian domestic politics.  I can’t put it better than Tbilisi State University professor Zviad Abashidze did when he discussed Georgia’s political culture with me two years ago.  He referred to the “fragmented political culture we have here” in Georgia, and maintained that no political party can possibly represent country-wide concerns because of the cleavages in Georgian politics.

I would only add that personalities are the driving force in Georgian political parties.  And a majority of Georgians seem to be weary of the factionalism and are distrustful of Nino Burjanadze.

While it is also true that President Saakashvili’s personal temperament and personal political style have alienated many Georgians, Burjanadze inflicted considerable damage to her reputation when she made a number of trips to Moscow after the calamitous 2008 Russo-Georgian war.  Those trips, which—fair or not—looked like a supplicant paying tribute to a conqueror, were a huge miscalculation and probably derailed her political future beyond repair, except in the eyes of her core supporters.

Tomorrow is Georgia’s Independence Day: look for more protests, and quite possibly violent confrontations.  It’s not for nothing that many of the demonstrators have shown up at rallies with what look like truncheons made from plastic tubing.  And Georgian riot police violently broke up large protests in Tbilisi in November 2007, leading to widespread condemnation from the international community.

(The latest news from Civil.ge, one of Georgia’s best news services, is that water canons and tear gas are being used against protesters, although the brief article does not go into details.)

Finally, something should be said about former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili, who has enjoyed political asylum in France after being charged by Georgian authorities with multiple counts of corruption and money laundering in 2007.

Okrusashvili promised to arrive in Tbilisi on 25 May to valiantly man the ramparts, or something of that nature.

“I can promise you two things,” Okruashvili told anti-government Maestro TV.  “That I will be in Georgia on May 25 and that this day will be the last one for this government.”

Alas, the former Minister failed to arrive in Tbilisi today, citing a ”disagreement” amongst the opposition, according to this piece by Helena Bedwell at Bloomberg.

This is eerily similar to the failure of Rasul Guliyev to return to Azerbaijan during the 2005 Color Revolution drama.  Guliyev’s reputation among the opposition was irretrievably destroyed when he didn’t show up, and one wonders what awaits Okruashvili, still in Paris.