After apparent heavy behind the scenes maneuverings, the Iranian nuclear situation heated up again this week. Both the United States and Iran came up with separate announcements presenting new actions/solutions designed to end the nuclear standoff. Yesterday Iran announced it had signed an agreement brokered by Brazil and Turkey. According to the BBC news the key points are as follows:
– Iran will notify the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the details of the agreement within a week
– If approved by the “Vienna Group” (US, Russia, France, IAEA), Iran will ship 1,200kg of low-enriched (3.5%) uranium (LEU) to Turkey
– The LEU will remain the property of Iran while in Turkey
– Tehran and the IAEA may send observers to monitor its security
– The Vienna group must then deliver 120kg of 20% enriched nuclear fuel to Iran within a year. The fuel would be used to power the Tehran research reactor, which produces radioisotopes for cancer treatment.
– Iran may request that Turkey return its LEU “swiftly and unconditionally” to Iran.
The Tehran Times reported, “After the agreement was signed, Turkey and Brazil – both non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – said it made sanctions unnecessary.” This deal is very similar to one Iran made last October in Vienna with the US, France, Russia and the IAEA but later rejected and is very likely a delaying tactic. Clever, but Iran apparently could not leave well enough alone and may have shot itself in the foot. Several hours after announcing the agreement, the Iranian government announced it would continue enriching uranium to a level of 20%. 20% is the level needed for research reactors, 90% and above is what is needed to make a nuclear weapon. Critics argue Iran’s desire to enrich uranium to 20% allows it to work on needed expertise to build a nuclear weapon and could possibly build a crude nuclear weapon at that level.
Today Secretary of State Clinton announced that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council to include Russia and China had agreed on sanctions against Iran. If approved, this would be the fourth round of sanctions imposed against Iran and would represent a major diplomatic coup for the Obama administration. Russia and China had been reluctant to agree to new sanctions.
I haven’t seen a copy of the sanctions yet but key provisions reportedly address a ban on selling weapons to Iran and a provision for inspection of merchant ships suspected of carrying arms or nuclear missile items to Iran. The inspections can be done either in ports or on the high seas. Other provisions propose bans on new branches of Iranian banks if it is believed they are involved in nuclear proliferation and freezing financial assets of more members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
This latest proposal does up the ante. Earlier sanctions only told nations to exercise restraint in selling major arms to Iran. There was also no provision for inspections of ships suspected of carrying weapons and nuclear related items; something the UN has extensive experience in. As part of the enforcement of sanctions against Iraq in the aftermath of the first Gulf War, the UN searched thousands of merchant ships. This is no small feat. First you have to have intelligence telling you what ships are carrying the prohibited cargo, and then you have to find them and board them. If you don’t catch them on the high seas and they reach a foreign port, you will have to prove to the host country that suspicious cargo is on board before they will let you search the ship.
This will be an interesting week. That’s all for now, I hear my couch calling me. I’m sure I’ll be writing more on this in the days to come.
