Been traveling this past week so have not had time to blog but wanted to do an update on Egypt. After apparently losing the support of the military and facing continuing demonstrations, President Mubarak has stepped down and turned over all power to his Vice President, Vice President Omar Suleiman. According to a New York Times report:
The Egyptian military issued a communiqué pledging to carry
out a variety of constitutional reforms in a statement
notable for its commanding tone. The military’s statement
alluded to the delegation of power to Vice President Omar
Suleiman and it suggested that the military would supervise
implementation of the reforms.
This is a remarkable turn of events and would not have been possible without the Egyptian military. The media reports have stated that the military has remained neutral. I disagree and believe the military has been pro Egypt and its primary concern over the last couple of weeks was IF a change did come about it would be orderly transition of power under the existing constitution. I suspect the military’s preferred option was having President Mubarak remain in office until the September elections. Once it became apparent in the aftermath of Mubarak’s TV message last night the demonstrations would not only continue but were gaining strength I’m sure they took him aside and told him they could no longer support his stay in office. This is not to say I don’t believe they will move forward with the hoped for reforms; only that whatever changes are made will be orderly and I suspect will maintain much of the current status quo in terms of government and economic infrastructure. I’m talking about organizations like banks, operation of the Suez Canal, critical infrastructures, hospitals, etc.
Now comes the hard work as various political parties are formed and preparations are made for elections. Many questions remain. Who is now in charge? Is it the Vice President? The military?
On February 9th, Stratfor put out an excellent article called the struggle called The Struggle Between Egypt’s Business and Military Elite. The article posed the following question: “With an apparent Egyptian political transition under way, the future of the country’s economic elite is in question. The business and political old guard, who had used their ties to President Hosni Mubarak to protect their business and political posts, will begin maneuvering to maintain or improve their statuses in the newly emerging political regime.” How this plays out, I believe this will be one of the major stories in the coming days. Complicating this scenario is the fact that the Egyptian military is part of the economy. The Startfor report says as the military share of the economy may be as high as 30 to 45%. The article does say “former Gen. Sayed Meshal, head of the Egyptian Ministry of Military Production, says 85 percent of the Egyptian economy is private and that the military’s role in the economy is dwindling.
Meshal’s ministry handles the military’s role in these sectors, and Meshal says the ministry employs 40,000 civilians and has an annual income of roughly $345 million. In addition to military goods, the Egyptian army produces various civilian goods such as bottled water, olive oil, pipes, fire extinguishers, computers, household appliances and cables through military-controlled companies for sale on the civilian market. The Egyptian army is also involved in what it considers strategic sectors, such as cement. Within the ministry, the National Organization for Military Production manages 16 military factories.”
Will end here. Will be blogging more on this topic next week. As always my views are my own.
