Been off the blogging sphere recently because of travel; now that I’m back home in Colorado thought I would give my thoughts on the Libyan situation. As I write this, according to press reports, anti-government forces are in control of most of the eastern portion of Libya, to include a large segment of the oil industry infrastructure and the nation’s second largest city, Benghazi. Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi still maintains control of Tripoli and some cities in the surrounding region.
At the moment, the rebel forces seem to have the momentum. Their forces are armed and supported by members of the Libyan military who have defected to their side. Exactly how much of the Army has defected is unclear but Colonel Qaddafi apparently maintains enough of a force to retain control of Tripoli and to mount attacks on rebel positions. According to an excellent Center for Strategic and International (CSIS) study written in 2010 by Anthony H. Cordesman, the Libyan Army consists of 50,000 men of which half are “poorly trained conscripts”. Its Air Force numbers 18,000 men and Navy 8,000.
The Libyan military has a large amount of military equipment but doesn’t have the manpower and talent to operate most of it so a large quantity is kept in storage and much of it is considered old and out of date. Colonel Qaddafi’s most effective and loyal (so far) forces are Libya’s paramilitary forces and security services. According to the CSIS study: “The data on such forces is uncertain and sources report very different details. There seems to be a 3,000-man Revolutionary Guard Corps (Liwa Harris Al-Jamahirya) to guard Qaddafi with T-54/55/62 tanks, armored cars, APCs, multiple rocket launchers, and ZSU-23-4s and SA-8s, which are taken from the army inventory. There also seem to be up to 2,500 men in the Islamic Pan African Legion, which may have one armored, one infantry, and one paracommando brigade, although its total manpower strength could only man less than one brigade slice. The Islamic Pan African Legion has at least 75 T- 54s and T-55s and some EE-9 MICVs. Roughly 700-1,000 men from the Islamic Pan African Legion were believed to be in the Sudan in 1988, but current deployments are unknown. There is also a People’s Cavalry Force that acts largely as a parade unit, and a people’s militia with a nominal strength of about 40,000 men.” Press reporting indicates Colonel Qaddafi has also imported large numbers of mercenaries from other African countries. The exact numbers are unknown but some press reports have been quoting numbers as high as 100,000.
The rebel forces are not only holding their own but according to a report in Sunday’s New York Times: “The most striking display of strength was seen … 30 miles from Colonel Qaddafi’s Tripoli redoubt. Zawiyah is one of several cities near the capital controlled by rebels, who have repulsed repeated attempts by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces to retake them. And the arsenal they displayed helped to explain how the rebels held Zawiyah.” The rebel cause received a major psychological boost over the weekend when the UN Security Council imposed sanctions. Secretary of State Clinton is currently in Europe discussing the situation and presumable other actions the international community could take if the situation deteriorates further.
The Obama administration has come under considerable criticism for not taking a more proactive stance such as imposing a no fly zone similar to the one that was imposed and enforced over Iraq during the 1990’s. Subsequent reporting suggests the caution was motivated over concerns of U.S. diplomats who were in the process of trying to get out of Libya with their families. Think Iran hostage situation. That sounds plausible to me. Normally when the U.S. finds it necessary to evacuate citizens because of a deteriorating situation in another country one of the methods is using the military to mount what’s called a non-combatant evacuation (NEO) operation. I noticed the U.S. relied on commercial shipping and aircraft to get its citizens out of Libya even though other nations like Turkey used their nations Navy to evacuate at least some of their citizens. I suspect the U.S. used the commercial option in order not to give Colonel Qaddafi an excuse for moving against U.S. citizens.
As for the no fly zone. Those operations are not as easy to set up as people seem to think. What you are asking for is enough aircraft to enforce a 24/7 restriction over Libya. Not only do you need aircraft but you also need a lot of intelligence assets to support that operation. It’s not an impossible operation but it is difficult and requires extensive coordination to set up properly. For instance in 2008 Italy signed a treaty with Libya. According to a report in the New York Times the treaty “calls on Italy to pay Libya $5 billion over 20 years in reparations for its colonial past there. In return Libya pledged to help block the flow of illegal immigrants to Italy and grant favorable treatment for Italian companies seeking to do business in Libya. But the treaty also contains a nonaggression clause that some analysts said complicated Italy’s position in the event of international military intervention in Libya. In it, Italy pledges not to use ‘direct or indirect’ military force against Libya.”
This weekend Italy suspended the treaty. In a television interview, their foreign minister, Franco Frattini stated: “We signed the friendship treaty with a state, but when the counterpart no longer exists – in this case the Libyan state- the treaty cannot be applied.”
Out of curiosity I checked to see what Naval units the U.S. had in the area that could take part no fly zone operations. The Navy’s Sixth Fleet headquarters are located in Italybut; but according to the February 28th issue of Navy Times, there is currently no aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean. There is one carrier strike group in the Gulf of Aden and one in the Arabian Sea. If the U.S. military is prepositioning units for establishment of a no fly zone, they would not be making announcements to that effect to the press.
Another thing to factor in when considering a no fly zone, is while its true Libya does not have a very good military they still have weapons such as surface to air missiles and anti-air artillery that can hurt forces participating in the operations. The CSIS study says these weapons are dated and obsolete but you still have to factor them into your planning.
I think Colonel Qadaffi’s days are numbered. The only question is whether he’s going down quietly or going down fighting. A lot depends on whether he’s able to maintain the loyalty of his inner circle and his mercenaries. My understanding is that some of the sanctions are designed to cut off his money flow. If he can’t pay the mercenaries, what happens?
Think I’ll end here. As always, my views are my own. Have a lot to blog about. The intelligence community has just released their yearly threat assessment. I also participated in a couple of Department of Defense Bloggers roundtable and have a lot of interesting stuff to share. Will get the information out within the next week.
