The New York Times just put out a news alert stating:
“The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian
officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign
immediately, turning over power to a transitional government
headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of
the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab
diplomats said Thursday.”
Considering the close relationship the U.S. has had, at least up to now, with the Egyptian military this is not surprising and I suspect the talks have been going on throughout the crisis. What is unclear is how much support President Mubarak still has within the military for staying on until September. Events of the last couple of days show he still has considerable support in some quarters. I don’t believe it was a coincidence that confrontation between the pro and anti Muburak forces turned violent the day after President Mubarak said he would step down in September and start work on a transition plan. The confrontations have been bloody with reports of at least 5 people killed and more than 800 wounded.
Unlike the anti-Mubark protesters, which began as a grass roots movement with no identifiable leaders; the pro-Mubarak protesters were well organized and apparently came with a plan to incite violence. According to another report in the New York Times:
“The Mubarak supporters emerged from buses. They carried the same flags and the same printed signs, and they all escalated their actions, from shouting to violence, at exactly the same moment: 2:15 p.m.”
Aljazeera is reporting that “the pro-democracy protesters accuse the regime of organizing the assault, using paid thugs and policemen in civilian clothes, in an attempt to crush their movement.” According to CNN reports, President Mubarak’s newly appointed prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq apologized for the violence and “blamed infiltrators and a ‘complete disappearance’ of police for the human toll in the ‘catastrophe’”. Egyptian TV reported that the government has frozen bank accounts and imposed travel bans on formal leaders. It’s unclear whether this is a hint of rift within President Mubarak’s regime or simply propaganda put out in hopes of easing tensions.
Another disturbing event in the last couple of days is the crackdown on the international media. Various media representatives have been beaten and driven undercover. Thus far the Army has remained neutral in the clashes between the two groups. The media crackdown has caused many to wonder if this will end in a Tiananmen Square situation.
What is clear that the Army is the key and will continue to be the major players in deciding how this ends. As I write this the Army is still guarding the Presidential Palace. There are still lots of unanswered questions. Egypt is a nation of 80 million with the majority of the citizens living in Alexandria, Cairo and along the banks of the Nile. I suspect there are a large number of people who are happy with President Mubarak’s transition plan and are ready to get back to normal. What this percentage is I don’t know. It’s also apparent from press reports that the roving pro-Mubarak forces are inciting fear in segments of the population. This is a policy that could backfire if the anti-regime protestors manage to continue their demonstrations. No one likes to be bullied and it is possible this will cause more people to join the anti-regime side. Time will tell.
Think I’ll end here. As always my views are my own.
