A notable poll of Palestinians was published a month ago that did not receive much attention. The poll, conducted by the Palestinian Policy and Survey Research Center (PSR) in Ramallah, found that a majority of Palestinians support extending the peace talks with Israel past the April 29th deadline if Israel partially halts settlement construction (51 percent support) or releases more Palestinian prisoners (65 percent support).
The findings are in stark contrast to polls published before the current round of talks began, which found that most Palestinians would only agree to negotiations if Israel halted all settlement construction completely.
It is widely understood that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas walks a fine line with the Palestinian public, which elected him to a four-year term over nine years ago. Besides questions surrounding his legitimacy, large segments of the Palestinian population are suspicious that he is too accommodating to the Israelis in negotiations. In my last article published on this site, I argued that Abbas is reluctant to sign on to any sort of final peace agreement because he fears its parameters would be too hard for the Palestinian public to swallow. Now he has a mandate to postpone such a decision while simultaneously pleasing the Americans and Israelis by remaining in the talks.
The findings of the poll bode well for the Israelis too. Netanyahu wants to extend the talks but is surely very reluctant to freeze settlement construction completely. And the fact that the survey shows that any prisoners being released – not specific prisoners – would suffice for the Palestinians is also good news because this issue contributed to Netanyahu’s delaying of the last scheduled release of prisoners (which in turn contributed to the current crisis in the talks). It is also in Netanyahu’s interest that Abbas’ constituents accept the moves the Palestinian president makes so that the situation in the West Bank remains relatively calm. Now he can rest easy on all of these counts.
Aaron David Miller just wrote an insightful article for Foreign Policy in which he remarked that with regards to the peace process, both the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships are more interested in the “process” than the “peace.” He argues that the process allows the leaders to avoid making tough decisions, all while receiving things from their mediator (the Americans).
In this instance the Americans — specifically Kerry — must be happy as well. There is a formula that prevents his peace process from falling apart — for now. And indeed, Miller devotes considerable space in his article to Kerry’s sheer will of seeing these talks through. Yet Miller argues that such an everlasting peace process “may only be delaying a day of reckoning.” Perhaps we will find out after the next round of talks is over.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
