Egyptian War Games Against Israel?

A major consideration behind Congressional attempts to condition or reduce Egyptian military aid is the concern that Egypt is preparing for aggressive military action towards Israel.  The late Tom Lantos led the initiative in Congress.  He had this to say in June 2004 during a subcommittee meeting of the House Committee on International Relations:

Cairo continues to acquire significant new military capabilities with United States taxpayer money, capabilities for which there is little or no obvious military necessity. For example, the Egyptian Navy created 11 new battle units and ordered advanced Harpoon II missiles and fast-attack vessels from the United States despite no obvious maritime threat. Egyptian military exercises are ominously geared toward an Israeli enemy that does not exist. This buildup is not only puzzling, Mr. Chairman, but in my view, it is a policy choice with seriously damaging implications both for Egyptian society and for regional stability.

The debate has recently surfaced in Israel, as right-wing Knesset member Avigdor Lieberman declared that Egypt's President Mubarak could "go to hell."  Mr. Lieberman's suggestion was largely in response to reports that the Egyptian Navy had recently conducted an exercise that targeted Israel as the enemy.  I have not seen any official confirmation that these exercises took place, or if they did, whether they targeted Israel.  Only fringe news publications have ran the story, which you can find here and here.

The Jerusalem Post has two articles of analysis, though.  One by independent analyst Meir Javedanfar, who posits that domestic politics drove Lieberman's comments, the other quoting Professor Yiftah Shapir of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Securities Studies, who argues that a strong Egyptian military is neither a shock nor a concern.  He points out that Egypt has a large coastal border and that all countries, Israel included, prepare themselves for conflict with all but their most trusted neighbors.

In that same June 2004 subcommittee meeting, then principal deputy assistant secretary of state for political military affairs Rose Likins assured the committee that the United States considers military releases to Egypt in light of Israel's Qualitative Military Edge, which basically insures that Israel maintains its military superiority in the region.  You can find the text of the meeting here.

While I cannot defend Egypt's exercising against a country with which it maintains a cold peace, I can at least understand it.  Every country has the right to protect itself.  Given the close working relationship between Israeli and Egyptian leadership, the strategic peace between the countries for the past three decades, and the relative military capabilities of each country, I do not foresee a great cause for concern.