The prospects of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s “economic peace” leading to a comprehensive political two-state solution may actually result in another intifada.
Sever Plocker’s latest op-ed in Ynet traces economic growth within the Palestinian Authority prior to the outbreak of the last two intifadas, in 1987 and 2000. Similarly, both intifadas erupted following specific events -a car accident and an Israeli official’s visit to the Temple Mount- and recent clashes between Israeli police and Palestinian protesters continue to occur following last week’s trip by religious Jews to the Temple Mount.
Plocker writes:
“Yet despite this amazing economic peace, one marginal and provocative spark was enough to stimulate the Intifada and the wave of terror, which brought the Palestinian standard of [living] back a generation and pulverized the Israeli economy. The casino in Jericho is still there, deserted, as a living testament to the failure of the previous attempt to bring economic normalization ahead of a diplomatic agreement.
The capitalistic belief in the ability of (partial) economic prosperity to subdue national aspirations, as unclear and undefined as those may be, should have been shattered into pieces nine years ago. Yet as it turns out, this did not happen.”
Instead, Plocker argues, religious extremism and ultra-nationalistic sentiments trump prosperity in the middle class and economic incentives for peace. He writes:
“The next Intifada, should it break out, may focus on Temple Mount, yet its logic will not really be related to religious feelings. Just like in previous times, its origin will be the volatile cocktail of a diplomatic dead-end coupled with an economic tie. As it turns out, the two don’t go well together.”
While Netanyahu continues to urge the “economic peace” concept, other officials are advocating the traditional two-state political peace process. In an interview with Haaretz, Jordanian King Abdullah stressed urgency in pursuing a two-state solution and placed the onus on Israel. He said:
“Show me the future of Israel 10 years from now. Where do you want Israel to be vis-a-vis its relationship with Jordan and other Arab countries? I understand that you tend to live in the here and now. You are worried about the next threat. It is difficult for an Israeli to look into the future because of the security aspect. But if there is peace and stability, then people can look into the future.”
In particular, Abdullah described settlements and the status of Jerusalem as major hurdles in the peace process. He called the current riots in Jerusalem “a tinderbox that will have a major flashpoint throughout the Islamic world.”
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