Duck and Cover

The rhetoric on the Iran nuclear program is all falling into place, and it appears that Israel, the United States and even Iran are bracing for a military confrontation. On the eve of Memorial Day, the Israeli government has warned that it will not face destruction. The United States military is weighing all its options. And Iran is developing a defensive infrastructure.

Granted, as readers of this blog will likely have noticed, I have pointed to this conclusion on multiple occasions, pointing out that a military confrontation is not only pending, but on the horizon. My prediction — it’ll happen around Christmas. Why? The Obama administration will not risk involving itself in the conflict before the elections, fearing that any military action would be viewed as a cheap political stunt to avoid staggering losses, which are expected. Further, later this year, the Iranians are expected to announce a major advance in their nuclear program.

In the United States, the indications seem to point toward acceptance of a military option as the only viable option to halt the Iranian nuclear program. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates authored a memo exploring a number of options against Iran and indicated that sanctions and a political solution are unlikely to result in major inroads.

In Israel, the rhetoric from the Netanyahu administration continues to escalate. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has long labeled the Iranian nuclear program as his top priority and a political solution to the peace process has not made any progress, even though the peace process has been labeled as a detriment to striking Iran because it wold undermine any progress. Members of the government continue to give speeches that Israel will not face extinction and fight back against any threat.

Meanwhile, in Iran, the regime continues to threaten Israel and taunt the Netanyahu administration. Further, the Iranian regime has developed a new missile defense system, bolstering its capabilities to repel an attack.

While I am in no way advocating an attack against Iran (I’m not necessarily opposed to one either), but the options are dwindling. Sanctions are unlikely to work, as China would continue to trade with the regime and undermine the economic penalties. Iran is unlikely to back down. And Israel will not stand still, permitting its nemesis to develop genocidal weapons. Further, the United States will not stand on the sidelines, permitting Israel to do the world’s dirty work and, potentially, fail. If Israel launched a unilateral strike, the chances of success drop and Iran would learn to defend its facilities, making a future attack less likely to succeed. The United States will be involved, and that involvement will occur after the midterm elections, and time is running out.