Demagoguery, Thy Name is Mugabe

Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s volatile and unpredictable President has moved from his insistence that his country would hold elections in 2011 and now says that Zimbabwe’s elections will be held no later than March 2012. For Mugabe the exact date of the elections matters much less, it seems, than his ability to dictate terms. For Mugabe it’s all about power. Capriciousness just reveals that ultimate power.  Morgan Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are less worried about when the elections happen than that the elections happen only after real reform in the country’s political system and elections processes.

Tellingly, Mugabe also has proclaimed that he would not allow any reforms in the country’s security apparatus. “The security forces remain what they are. We have one of the best armies in Africa. We fought the struggle here. We helped the struggle in Mozambique, DRC and served the UN peacekeeping missions. If there is any force to be proud of in Africa, it is the Zimbabwe National Army.” Beyond beggaring belief, the fact that Mugabe ties the election date with obstinance on reform of the security forces that are so central to his control is, to say the least, insightful.

Mugabe is nothing if not shameless. For years his regime has been propped up by security forces both formal — the various police forces and the military — and informal — most notably the seemingly ubiquitous “war vets” who have been such a central pole in the ZANU-PF tent. On Saturday, Mugabe, who has been the source both directly and indirectly of so much of the country’s political violence, had the audacity to entreat his fellow Zimbabweans to avoid political violence. Mugabe spoke at the burial of close aide Solomon Mujuru, the country’s first defence chief and the husband of Vice-President Joyce Mujuru, who mysteriously died in a fire recently:

“Let’s urge our people, please, no violence, no violence, no violence. Let’s create peace in our country. We are very happy that over the past months, there has been some remarkable peace in our country. We all agree. Prime Minister Tsvangirai agrees and Deputy Prime Minister Mutambara. Let it be like that till elections. If you want me, I am there, I won’t refuse.”

And of course there was the obligatory swipe at interfering outsiders: “we continue to say to the British and their allies, the Americans: leave us alone. Get away from us. We are an independent people. We are a sovereign people.”

Demagoguery comes so easily to Mugabe that it has become his default setting. If Mugabe is healthy enough to run in the 2012 elections (and it is unwise to point out his advanced age, as one MP recently discovered) mark my words: he will be healthy enough to unleash whatever levels of violence (and concomitant obfuscation to be able to deny the violence as coming from his hand) he deems necessary to allow him to maintain power.