2010 was a year of ups and downs on the island, and in the US-Cuba relationship. Cuba watchers held their breath when US and Cuban officials met for discussions on migration and direct mail service, and when the two countries cooperated in the Haiti disaster relief effort. We began the year in a rush of optimistic fervor. But we let out our breath in a frustrated sigh when Washington again placed Cuba on its State Department shortlist of state sponsors of terrorism, when the hunger-striking dissident Orlando Zapata Tamayo starved to death in the Cuban prison where he was held, and when Cuba travel ban legislation with broad support died in Congress.
Cuba began to prepare for inevitable political succession, and to make higher-profile economic changes, particularly in the latter half of the year. The changes, along with the regime’s agreement with the Church to release a number of jailed individuals considered to be political prisoners, indicate important shifts in policy that have received no public response from the Obama administration. But neither has one of the sticking points of this year for Washington — the detention of U.S. citizen Alan Gross in Havana — been resolved. Indeed, it is not apparent whether any progress has been made in that case, and with the new balance in Congress and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen taking over Howard Berman’s seat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, it could well be a stalemate on both sides for another… who knows how long?
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In a socialist state, the inefficiencies and redundancies produced by guaranteed employment are old news. We’ve seen them in Cuba for years, perhaps intensified following the fall of the Soviet Union, but long apparent. That the regime would act swiftly and decisively to eliminate these redundancies — practically at the expense of one of the pillars of the socialist system — well, that was unexpected. Cuba began a process of laying off redundant workers this fall. Raúl’s point: “Without people feeling the need to work to make a living, sheltered by state regulations that are excessively paternalistic and irrational, we will never stimulate a love for work.” So the ‘love for work’ socialist axiom wins out over the ‘guaranteed employment by the state’ socialist ideal, the effect being a broadening of private sector opportunities. Fascinating stuff.
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I was tempted to give this to Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (person of the year indicates importance to the issues at hand: it is not a reward for good behavior). Ileana managed to crush the hearts of Cuba watchers in the United States following the November midterms as she strolled into the Berman position as Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, thus scrapping any chance of getting through some new Cuba legislation at the end of the year.
… Or indeed, next year.
But actually, Person of the Year in 2010 has to go to Fidel for his surprising reappearance and return to high relevance both in global debates and in domestic affairs in Cuba. He became a big political figure again, after he had been hidden from the public eye for years since serious illness nearly killed him. Over the summer he made media appearances, strolled around in public at schools and aquariums, and generally made his presence known again.
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As we head into the New Year, we’ll continue to have one eye on Washington and the other on Havana. Will the Obama administration make moves independent of Congress? (Frankly, not likely. In order to be sure that Ileana cooperates on other issues, the administration is anxious not to upset her on this one). Will educational and cultural exchanges continue to expand beneath the radar? What will the new economic overhaul, to be debated and approved at the Communist Party Congress in April, bring to Cuba in the coming year? And how will the expanding private sector fare under these new circumstances?
We’ll be here. And we hope you will be, too.
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