CSTO: More rumbling predicts new activity

I’ve posted a couple of isolated reports on the CSTO recently.  It now seems that these are part of some new, more comprehensive Central Asian security initiatives. 

The Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Nikolai Bordyuzha, was in Kyrgyzstan to attend a working meeting.  He inspected Kyrgyz Defense and Interior special forces exercises.  Mr. Bordyuzha also spoke at Kyrgyzstan's first Media Conference, on “The role of mass media in counteracting challenges and threats of the 21st Century”.  Much of what he said has implications for future diplomacy, security and domestic initiatives:

Afghanistan, NATO, & Border Control
First, KazInform reports that Mr. Bordyuzha said that NATO efforts in Afghanistan were inefficient in terms of eradicating terrorist groups and criminal gangs, and that the Taliban represented Central Asia's greatest threat.  Not only religious extremism, but rapidly-increasing drug trade through Central Asia is destabilizing the region.  The Kyrgyz Secretary of State agreed, saying that the destabilization of one state was a loss to the world community. 

Yesterday I posted that Kyrgyzstan has asked for additional Russian assistance in border control and control of migration.  This also means an increased Russian force presence in Kyrgyzstan, something that may have implications for future US-Kyrgyzstan negotiations for Ganci Air Force Base in Manas.

This is especially true since Mr. Bordyuzha also outlined NATO's nefarious plots to expand into Central Asia.  Interfax quoted him as saying that:

In fact, NATO has been pursuing a policy of projecting and consolidating its military-political presence in the Caucasus and in Central Asia.”  . . . .
But there are also other external challenges and risks that undermine stability in the post-Soviet space, primarily the growing activities of extra-regional structures, primarily NATO, the European Union and third countries.”
In addition to this, a concept to build the so-called “Greater Central Asia” is being pushed forth, which is an attempt to drive a geopolitical wedge between regional states on the one hand and Russia and the CSTO on the other. This is an attempt to re-orient the Central Asian states towards cooperation with the United States in a new format, encompassing, besides the Central Asian states, Afghanistan and Pakistan and, in the future, India.”

For me, this looks like an attempt to use fear of drug traffic and extremism to kill any multilateral economic ties and NGO activity from India, Pakistan, the EU and the US.  Due to this “multilateral plot”, Mr Bordyuzha is calling for a new CSTO counterterrorist community.  This appears to be a new military force, despite the fact that the CSTO already has a rapid anti-terror deployment force. 

A new call for increased CSTO military had already gone out last week.

Afghanistan & the Media War:
In a separate article, Mr. Bordyzha noted that the war against extremist elements in Central Asia was being carried out less by force and more by persuasion, in media outlets.  His stated that more information security was needed.  He also wants to counteract extremist views in the media.  This may well affect the content of Central Asia's media over the short and medium term.

Three main points:
This new CSTO rumbling seems to point to three different Russian ambitions:
1. Keeping a core-periphery relationship with Russia: Notwithstanding the arguments against NATO expansion in Central Asia, it is really non-NATO entities that bother the Russian Federation.  The recent appeals to the CSTO/Russia for greater security provision reflect that NATO or any of its constitutent states has been given (and perhaps has not asked for) much of a role in Central Asia's security.  Thus, the fear of the “expansion of NATO” has more to do with a fear of multilateral economic ties, recently accelerating between South Asia and Central Asia, as well as between the EU, US, and some of Central Asia's Republics, and the global governance advocates.

2. Providing security: On balance, none of these new initiatives are unprecedented.  Their main significance is the following: however much ISAF forces in Afghanistan say they are making gains, Central Asia is not feeling any relief from either organized crime or extremism emanating from that region.  The US Department of State renewed its warning of terrorism in Central Asia on April 24th, which might seem to tacitly agreement to that feeling of insecurity. 

3. Meeting failures of ISAF: The US focus continues to be on Afghanistan as a state.  Failing to look at Afghanistan as a regional problem to the north as well as East and West (Pakistan & Iran) has created problems for Central Asian states. 

In addition, much of the support that Central Asia would need to combat organized crime or provide alternate economic opportunities has now been diverted to the immediate war effort.  This security and economic gap is particularly acute in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which are the least economically developed and the states which comprise the narcotrafficking routes. 

Conclusion:
By failing to view this larger picture, the US policy of minimal aid to these states has allowed Russia, through the medium of the CSTO, to fill a security vacuum that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cannot fill by themselves.  As we all know, security is first.  Long-range, these CSTO efforts will only delay the initiatives toward a free press and economic independence–but then again, so do crime and terrorism.

Photos: Jamestown Foundation; Charlestown AFB; US Army