Countering the Chinese Naval Tsunami

An interesting aspect of India’s defense strategy today is its focus on increasing its naval power, currently the fifth largest in the world. Last month, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted a panel to discuss this “dramatic maritime transformation.” Within the next decade, the country plans to introduce 40 new warships and 400 new aircraft to its naval forces. Obviously, India’s newfound economic strength, ever-increasing reliance on sea-based commerce for its growing energy needs and concerns over coastal security, especially after the 2008 Mumbai attacks, have been instrumental in pushing the country to increase its naval prowess. However, the expansion plans have been primarily triggered by the 900 pound gorilla in the region – China and its growing naval power.

In a fascinating article in Foreign Affairs last year, Robert Kaplan discussed this Indian-Chinese rivalry of the seas, calling it the equivalent of a maritime Great Game. This rivalry is not one to be dismissed; both sides view the other’s rise with suspicion and unease. India’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz** and China’s reliance on the Strait of Malacca** has both countries scampering to mitigate their respective vulnerabilities. For instance, India has initiated a buildup of its naval base in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, at the mouth of the Malacca Strait. This has been in response to China’s alliance with Pakistan and its construction of the Gwadar port in Pakistan, near the Strait of Hormuz.

But is this a game that will leave India perpetually playing catch up? During the Wilson Center discussion, panelist Arun Prakash, a former Indian naval chief of staff, warned that a naval arms race “is all around us,” and India is “already losing.” The fact remains that with more than one-third of the overall Chinese military budget, China’s navy is expanding at a rate that has even the US alarmed. The Chinese naval strategy has changed from a narrow scope of coastal defense to far sea defense, which has them projecting their power in areas traditionally dominated by the US. Today, a top Chinese military strategist dismissed India as a serious military threat, adding that the US “is the only country capable of threatening the Communist nation’s security interests.” China’s growing navy has other Southeast Asian countries equally worried, with many of them, including Singapore, Vietnam and Japan, quietly acquiring “more submarines, missiles and other weapons.”

In this race for dominion, as a democracy, India faces greater challenges than its rival; as with everything else, political intransigence, bureaucracy and corruption continue to pose roadblocks to India’s growing military ambitions. Take for instance today’s report that the air force missed its deadline to buy 126 Jets, two years after it asked six aircraft makers to submit bids. With the cost of aircraft rising by around 7 to 10 percent a year, the cost of buying these Jets is sure to rise. However, the fact remains that India is still the only country in Asia that can serve as a credible balance against a rising China. This is what makes it so essential for the US to work with India and for India to work with its Asian neighbors to ensure that the biggest kid on the block continues to play nice.

**The Straits of Hormuz and Malacca are important trade and energy routes for the world and especially important for India and China respectively. India’s energy imports (oil/LNG) mainly come from the Persian Gulf and pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is located between Iran and Oman. Similarly, “more than 85 percent of the oil and oil products bound for China cross the Indian Ocean and pass through the Strait of Malacca,” a stretch located between Malaysia and Indonesia.