Charges in Hariri murder expected by year's end

Officials from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) have stated that they expect charges to be filed in the Hariri murder case between September and December of this year.

Former Prime Minister Rafik Hairri was assassinated in 2005 by a massive explosion as his motorcade drove through the streets of Beirut. The STL was established by the United Nations Security Council in 2007 to bring Hariri’s killers to justice.

The court is also mandated to investigate the wave of assassinations that swept Lebanon from 2004 to 2007. The vast majority of those killed were critics of the Syrian regime that occupied Lebanon from 1976 to 2005. Many in Lebanon and in the international community suspect Syrian involvement in the murders. Syria has steadfastly denied any involvement in Hariri’s death.

(The prospect of Syria being named as the culprit in the case has serious implications for Lebanon, and analysis of the case and surrounding circumstances is discussed at length here.)

News from the STL that a suspect will be named by year’s end comes just before current Prime Minister Saad Hariri (Rafik Hariri’s son) is due in Washington DC to meet President Obama.

The spectre of STL indictments will no doubt add to the load that Hariri will be carrying with him to DC. Hariri is in the unenviable position of being caught between Iran and Syria on one side and the United States on the other. The tribunal, as well as Iranian sanctions and Hizballah’s weapons will likely be covered at the meeting. (Full analysis of Hariri’s trip to Washington is covered here.)

This week, just days before he is scheduled to leave for Washington, Hariri was in Damascus consulting with Syrian President Bashar Assad.Syrian official characterized Mr. Hariri’s visit to Syria as a chance to get on the same page before the Premier’s trip to America. Washington and Damascus have seen somewhat of a thaw in their frosty relationship since President Obama took office.

This is a busy month for the Prime Minister, as he as already been to Saudi Arabia to meet with King Abdullah, Damascus to meet with President Assad, and has trips planned to the United States and Turkey by month’s end. Lebanon is thriving right now,  but the country faces a long hot summer with the prospect of another war with Israel looming. Perhaps Mr. Hariri is trying to shore support for his tiny country.

The blowback from a Syrian indictment in the case could have serious consequences for Lebanon, but  lead investigator Daniel Bellemare says that he is only concerned with the facts in the case and not their political implications.

Lebanon and Syria have had a tense relationship over the years due to the occupation, bombings, and assassination of Haririr, but since Lebanon’s parliamentary elections in June 2009, the two have attempted to mend fences in an effort facilitated by the Saudis.

Since the STL’s inception, Syria has criticized the politicization of the investigation, alleging that the West is wielding the tribunal in an attempt to drive a wedge between Damascus and Tehran.