Chances of Egypt-style revolution in Azerbaijan? Slim to none.

Events in Tunisia and Egypt are being closely monitored and discussed by pro- and anti-government forces in Baku these days, with postings on web forums, Twitter, facebook, and blogs – not to mention established web sites and newspapers.  Even in Egypt, the well-known “sandmonkey” blogger has tweeted about Azerbaijan, expressing thanks for support the protesters have gotten from the Azerbaijani opposition and musing about a demonstration at the statue of Hosni Mubarak near Baku. Blogger Ali Novruzov has tweeted that police are protecting the statue, and says that the opposition have demanded its removal. And a number of Azeri opposition figures have attempted to draw parallels between the events in North Africa and the political situation in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s recently formed opposition bloc Civic Movement for Democracy — Public Chamber (GDDOP) has, according to this story at the RFE/RL web site, voiced support for the emerging revolution in Egypt, but has also called for new parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan to supersede the tainted elections late last year.  The thinking in the opposition camp is apparently that a new round of elections will head off an Egypt-style popular uprising, and the rhetoric from the leadership is a bit dramatic.  Isa Gambar, for instance, warned ominously that if the Aliyev government does not agree to new, democratic elections, “the people will rise up. By then it will be too late for the authorities, and events will develop in accordance with the Tunisian and Egyptian scenarios.”

While I have enormous respect for Gambar, who is usually more cautious in his public pronouncements, I don’t read the situation in Azerbaijan the way he does.  The fact is that the people of Azerbaijan will not “rise up” in the way that Egyptians and Tunisians have.  The masses have never been mobilized in Azerbaijan, and the two major opposition parties—Musavat and the Popular Front Party—have been marginalized and demoralized by the government to such an extent that I am beginning to think that their day is over.  This is despite the imprisonment of pro-democracy activists and journalists, despite the crooked elections, and despite the increasingly bleak picture for democratic development in Azerbaijan.

Interestingly, the government seems to be taking events in Egypt and Tunisia seriously.  Khadija Ismayilova, one of Azerbaijan’s savviest journalists, writes in a Eurasianet article that the government’s anti-corruption commission met on 29 January for the first time since 2009.  Its head administrator is Soviet-era strongman Ramiz Mehdiyev, who also serves as President Aliyev’s chief of staff. Khadija reports that “a number of import duties, often seen as benefiting government-friendly monopolists, have been abolished as well.”

I wonder if some of those import duties benefited his long-time rival Kamaladdin Heydarov.

Khadija adds that “in recent days they have received directives advising them to avoid irritating the population and to work effectively and build public trust.”

Meanwhile, the criminal case against former parliamentary candidate Bakhtiyar Hajiyev continues.  Hajiyev, an opposition candidate in last year’s elections, was on his way to Tbilisi in November for PhD studies when he was detained at a border post by Azerbaijani authorities and asked to provide an explanation for why he had not reported for military conscription, which is universal in Azerbaijan.

Since then, formal charges have been laid against him, and he has been prohibited from leaving the city of Ganja, where the case is being heard.  Military service is waived for students until such time that they are no longer studying for a degree, and Hajiyev tells me that the exemption argument is one of the pillars of his case.  But he is also contending that he is entitled to choose “alternative service,” which the Azerbaijani constitution allows for those whose beliefs prohibit them from serving in the military.

Hajiyev says the government is selectively prosecuting him in order to punish him for speaking out against the policies of President Aliyev.  I’m quite sure that this is true.  And it’s also true that Azerbaijan’s parliament has not yet defined what constitutes alternative service. Fine.

But I’m a bit puzzled by the two-pronged argument Hajiyev is making: either one is claiming an academic exemption or one is asking for alternative service based on moral or religious beliefs.  You can’t have it both ways, it seems to me.

We shall see what fate awaits Hajiyev, but I’m betting that he will be wearing camouflage fatigues in the not-too-distant future.  Whether he is allowed to leave the country after completing his military service is something we will discover a year after he reports for duty.

Correction/addendum: Bakhtiyar Hajiyev contacted me today (7 February) with a correction and clarification. His note in its entirety appears below.  He wanted to clarify his court strategy, given the complex circumstances, and he also corrected my mistaken conclusion that he will be forced into military service if he does not prevail in court. I appreciate Bakhtiyar’s accessibility and courtesy during what must be quite an ordeal.  If he loses his case, a prison sentence may await him. Sections in quotes are from my original post (above), with his commentary afterwards.

Let me quickly clarify two points:

1) “But I’m a bit puzzled by the two-pronged argument Hajiyev is making: either one is claiming an academic exemption or one is asking for alternative service based on moral or religious beliefs. You can’t have it both ways, it seems to me.”

There is no forcible military conscription. I decided to deny military service and now, there are two options for me. Either 2 years in jail, or the government may close the criminal case against me until the Parliament adopts a legislation on alternative service.