The Need to Overtake Hamas Before Declaring Statehood

There was a really interesting article written this week by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Patrick Clawson and Michael Singh about Palestinian state building.  The article discussed the claim by the IMF and World Bank that the West Bank is very close to being prepared for statehood.  Clawson and Singh argued that in reality the Palestinians of the West Bank are not ready, and that the economic success the IMF and World Bank cited as making them ready (which is largely a result of its economic cooperation with Israel) is only one variable of a functioning state. The article also stated that unification might be necessary in order to succeed, and it is hard to imagine any kind of real progress occurring in the Gaza Strip so long as it is ruled by Hamas.  It didn’t outright say, however, what really needed to be said: Palestinians need to find a way to overtake Hamas before it can dream of being sovereign.  As long as Hamas is around, Fatah (or any other reasonable option besides Hamas) will be discredited, and in the Gaza Strip repressed.  I think it’s clear that a real Palestinian state, for ALL Palestinians, is not possible under any kind of Hamas leadership.  Gazans need to rise up against Hamas.

I think that if the public will is there, the Palestinians in Gaza have a good shot at successfully overthrowing their repressors.  Two things make this possible.  First, do not expect Hamas to get too much support from their apparently reforming cousins, the Muslim Brotherhood.  Their hands are full in Egypt and the spotlight is on them, leaving them little room or desire to be involved in any kind of conflict outside of Cairo.  Iran and Hezbollah will also tread lightly in their support of Hamas if something erupts in Gaza, as they too are walking on eggshells in their own countries.  Second, Gazan’s have third party options that are willing to help them, namely the Palestinian Authority (PA).  Whether Gazan’s like them or not, the PA is well trained and well armed.   They are also certainly preferable to Israeli assistance, who given the right incentives would be more than willing to take another stab at eliminating Hamas, in the slim to none chance the people of Gaza ask.

Obviously this is no simple task.  Hamas will not go quietly in to the night and unfortunately people will die.  Gazan’s have to ask themselves what they are willing to risk for real sovereignty, as getting rid of Hamas is necessary for domestic reconciliation and getting peace talks back on track.  Banishing Hamas will also put the pressure on Fatah and the PA to reform if they want any chance of staying in power.

Revolution and the hope of change still has a ton of momentum in the Middle East and North Africa, and with some strong political will, Gazans just might be able to dig themselves out of the hole they built by electing Hamas in the first place (and maybe even get another shot at real democracy).  It won’t be easy, but state building never is.  These ideas are probably far-fetched and unlikely to occur, but hey, it is the Middle East and as we have seen over the last few months, crazier things have happened.

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