On December 14th, in Samandepe in eastern Turkmenistan, the starting point of the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, the President of China opened the valve that will send natural gas from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to China. This is the first major gas pipeline that will be an alternative to Russian pipelines. 40 billion cubic meters (bcm) can flow through the line, mostly sourced in Turkmenistan. The gas is meant for Chinese domestic consumption, even as far as Shanghai. According to the NYTimes, that is equivalent to half of China’s current consumption of gas.
Of course, this raises so many issues. If the European pipeline, known as Nabucco, will ever be built, will there be enough gas for it? No way to know either of those. How will China affect Central Asian politics, both within countries and between them? Kazakh President Nazarbayev waxed hopeful, stating “The startup of this pipeline reconstructs the ancient Silk Roads and symbolizes friendship and cooperation.”
I have no reason to be either optimistic or pessimistic. Only 5 bcm will flow through the pipeline this year, increasing to at least 13 bcm in 2011, and reach the design capacity of 30 bcm per year by 2013. Will influence increase with the level of gas? We shall have to wait and see. For now, this pipeline has little affect on Russia, Gazprom and their hold on the European market. The status quo will hold true there. I am more interested in how Central Asia will be affected. On that front, I hope the Chinese pipeline will allow for more cooperation between the countries and more economic development.
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