Rising Powers

It’s hard to throw a virtual rock nowadays at any foreign affairs publication and not find statements of the demise or fall of American power. In many ways, these are accurate statements as American economic power is falling in proportion to some of the rising economies around the world (although it is still top dog […]

True, the Mubarak regime was authoritarian and at times brutal with its domestic opponents; true, Mubarak squandered opportunities over three decades to gradually introduce pluralism and democracy.  But, compared to other such regimes, was it so bad, especially from the American perspective? Why were Western governments so eager to topple him, yet still tiptoe around the likes of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or his […]

  I have admired Barack Obama for some time, but since early in the 2008 Democratic primaries, I have written that his Achilles’ heel is his hubris.  It is his strength, for sure, propelling a charismatic politician with little experience (especially on foreign policy) into the White House.  But it can be his undoing.  On […]

Credit Suisse today reported that a number of emerging market (EM) economies are experiencing rising inflation; and in some, central banks are countering with interest rate hikes (see excerpt below).  Might seem strange to those of us who live in a country where policy interest rates are at zero and the Federal Reserve seems to be more […]

Some Russians want to rehabilitate the great novelist Leo Tolstoy.  (Read a NYTimes article on the subject here.)  Russia’s post-Soviet regime turned a cold shoulder to the author of Anna Karenina and War and Peace because the Russian Orthodox Church excommunicated him in 1901 and because he was later exalted by Soviet leaders.  In the late 19th century, […]

Congratulations! Brazil inaugurated its first woman president in history on the first of the year.  Read her inaugural speech below.  President Rousseff, a close ally of outgoing President Lula since 2000 and his anointed successor, lacks the charisma of her benefactor, but not the resume.  Fighting as a Marxist urban guerrilla against Brazil’s military regime in […]

Pretzel contortions are part of the diplomatic game.  In the Rising Powers Year in Review (read here), we called North Korea’s violence against the South and advanced uranium enrichment program the biggest surprise of 2010.  South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s New Year’s message today (see BBC article) has kept up the West’s diplomatic contortions — stand […]

In the Rising Powers Year in Review this week, we cited North Korean aggression as the most unexpected development of 2010 and China’s tightrope walk over the issue as a key dynamic to watch in 2011.  China is at once the nuclear rogue’s chief benefactor and a rising power with global responsibilities; hence the high wire act.  An interesting NYTimes […]

In the Rising Powers Year in Review, we highlighted North Korea’s heightened belligerence and the advanced state of its uranium enrichment as 2010’s most unexpected developments.  Today, the NYTimes reports that the North appears to be threatening to use nuclear weapons and the South continues its military exercises.  New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who has […]

Overview 2010 is nearly gone, so what’s in store for the world’s rising powers and their status quo partners?  2011 threatens to be a year of discord.    Keep an eye on two fronts: economic policy and geopolitics.  Will the great and the good continue to coordinate policies to improve the functioning of the global economy […]

The Economic Commission for Latin America Monday said it expects GDP growth to slow in the region to 4.2% from 6% this year.  This forecast makes sense.  A slowdown will be driven by tighter macro policies across the region that seek to stem inflationary pressures, as well as slower growth in the advanced economies and China, limiting demand for […]

The critics of the Federal Reserve don’t get it.  Here are two articles in the WSJ and NYTimes that describe the withering ideological attack the US central bank has sustained since the onset of the global financial crisis.  In recent posts, Nov. 15 and Nov. 18, I have argued that deflation risk is real and requires unorthodox thinking and action by […]