South Africa's Elections: Two Predictions
January 30, 2009 1 min. read

A two-part prediction: The 2009 election might be the closest in South African history since the 1940s (which does not in and of itself mean that it will be very close — since 1948 South African national elections have been characterized by one party dominance, whether in the form of the National Party under Apartheid […]

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Reality at Davos: Mexico's Difficult Task
January 29, 2009 2 min. read

According to Mexican President Felipe Calderon, his participation at the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum aims at placing Mexico as an attractive place to invest, re-designing the global financial system, meeting with international organizations and heads of state and government, discussing global issues, and attending three plenary sessions. Three of these five goals […]

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The ANC's Malema Dilemma
January 29, 2009 1 min. read

Is ANC Youth League President Julius Malema, whose antics and outspokenness have aroused controversy for many months now, finally doing demonstrable harm to the ANC cause? In the Western cape, at least, it appears so. Malema has served as a lightning rod virtually since his ascent to national prominence. Now it appears that his controversial […]

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Hope and Fear in Somalia
January 29, 2009 1 min. read

Any signs of progress in Somalia are certainly welcome, and the upcoming parliamentary presidential elections provide at least a glint of hope, even if many of us reserve judgment until those elections come to pass and result in some sort of positive change for virtually stateless Somalia. Nonetheless, even the modest optimism that the presidential […]

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The ANC's Balancing Act
January 29, 2009 2 min. read

As South Africa's political parties gear up for this year's likely epochal elections one of the key preparations is to begin to compile the lists of its parliamentary candidates and selection of those likely to serve in cabinet positions. The African National Congress (ANC) will warrant particular scrutiny as the party completes its transition from […]

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Bagram Prison and Obama's Gitmo Policy Change
January 29, 2009 2 min. read

Amid all the hullabaloo around Obama's decision to shut down Gitmo within one year, is Gitmo's brother, the Bagram Air Base prison in Afghanistan. The air base is home to an important prison system that holds some of ‘worst of the worst’. The US considers the 600 or so inmates prisoners of war and holds […]

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Peace, Justice, and Guinea
January 29, 2009 1 min. read

Whatever one thinks of the recent coup in Guinea, it appears to be a fait accompli, and as a result, even those who loathe the method need to turn their focus toward making sure that its aftermath results in a better country. There will be lots of talk about how to accomplish this — democratization, […]

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Six of One, Half Dozen of the Other
January 29, 2009 1 min. read

Zimbabweans have been ingenious in exercising the limited options available to facilitate survival. One of the main courses of action has been simply to escape from the country. Sometimes the emigrants have included children fleeing on their own, either as orphans or in hopes of supporting their families at home. But as this New York […]

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A New Cold War: But Was There Ever An Old One?
January 28, 2009 12 min. read

  Edward Lucas, the Economist's man in Moscow, has a lot to answer for. In 2008, he wrote a provocative book called “The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West” which paints a harrowing picture of the country's new assertiveness. A year on, his thesis continues to makes waves, with a […]

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the other major news item in the Middle East
January 27, 2009 1 min. read

… that is, the upcoming elections in Iraq, have been aggressively overshadowed by events in Gaza. FPA War Crimes blogger Daniel Graeber has a piece at IslamOnline discussing the current political climate leading up to the elections.

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EU-Central Asia-Russia: The Inept Gas Triangle Continues
January 27, 2009 4 min. read

It was just last week that I put in a blog piece that the EU's chances of diversifying their gas supplies were extremely poor. Even though the Georgia-Russian war and even more recent Ukraine-EU gas pipeline was shut off by Moscow, seemingly bringing Europe to their energy knees once again, I pretty much agreed with […]

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Obama's first television interview as President
January 27, 2009 1 min. read

… broadcast on Al Arabiya, the Saudi-owned news channel. He promises to listen and approach Middle East policy in a manner reflective of “mutual respect“. Marc Lynch is very excited; thankfully for those of us following this story from our desks, he has begun and will continue to track Arab responses to the interview. Read […]

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