Can Turkey attack Syria?

Once the shining example of Turkey’s ‘strategic depth’, the Assad regime, as a result of its repression of Syrian dissent, has moved from a ‘zero-problems’ policy to a ‘tough love’ policy in Turkey’s foreign policy outlook. During his September speech in New York, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasized Turkey’s changing view towards the Assad regime, indicating that he has invested a lot of political and personal capital on the Assad regime to the extent that Erdogan and Assad families had ”met together” in the past – albeit he indicated that Turkey cannot speak of a friendship or alliance with Syria as long as the regime ”shelled its own citizens”. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had also previously indicated that Turkey’s patience with Syria ‘‘is almost over” and the Turkish military has started to engage in drills in Hatay, on the Syrian border.

Non-governmental pressure on Turkey to act against the Assad regime is also mounting. Recently close to 15,000 Turkish and international activists and supporters signed a petition on Change.org asking the Turkish government to engage in targeted sanctions against the Assad regime. Turkish government also appears to be keen on imposing such sanctions unilaterally, despite the European failure at the United Nations to impose these sanctions in the first place. In the meantime, it is feared in Ankara that due to escalating tensions between Ankara and Damascus, the Assad regime might start arming or aiding the PKK rebels, who recently increased their attacks on the Turkish military.

Therefore, while preparing for targeted sanctions on Syria and meeting members of the opposition Syrian National Council, Turkish military is also preparing to fight a two-front war against the Assad regime if the Syrian situation poses a security risk to Turkey, while simultaneously countering the increasing threat of the hit-and-run attacks by the PKK that has created intense public reaction and pressure for a cross-border operation into northern Iraq. In late-September, Turkey closed its airspace to military cargo planes heading for Syria, effectively cutting arms and ammunition supplies to the Assad regime. Meanwhile, Turkish-Syrian escalation may turn into a regional war, Assad recently threatening Turkey that if NATO attacked Syria ”Syria will shower Tel Aviv with rockets”, while at the same time ”Iran will attack US warships in the Gulf”, simultaneously targeting ”European interests”.