After China and the US, which together contribute 40% of the world’s burden of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, you come to Indonesia and Brazil. Why? In a word, deforestation. Japan, because of its industrial emissions, comes in 8th overall. So when there’s news on the intentions of these major economies on reducing their GHG, we should listen.
We’ve heard a fair bit about how the nations of the developing world – the Non-Annex 1 countries – are resisting any commitments to quantifiable emission reductions. Certainly China and India have been vehement on this score. Some, however, are moving forward with ambitious plans. At a conference I attended this week, I heard Nathaniel Keohane, EDF’s Director of Economic Policy and Analysis, cite Mexico, South Africa and Brazil as three countries that are progressing nicely on addressing their emissions. (More about the conference in a forthcoming post or two.)
Brazil could adopt greenhouse targets: Lula is the story from Reuters. Brazil’s President said his country, according to the article, “…was open to adopting targets for greenhouse gas emissions…” His condition, though, was that developed countries had to take on more responsibility. Destruction of the Amazon rainforest, 1½ times the size of India (or eight states of Texas), lying mostly in Brazil, is the main reason, by far, that Brazil is so high on the list of contributors to climate change. That is also the reason that REDD is going to play so critical a role in the post-Kyoto international framework. “The Economist” looks at Brazil and the Amazon this week in both this article and this leader. Both note the efforts that Brazil is making and the incredible difficulties involved. Brazil (and Indonesia and other rainforest nations) are up against some powerful commercial interests. What is forthcoming on the international scene is a system for securing rainforests by creating economic incentives for preserving them. As “The Economist” puts it: Lay down that axe and you will get cash. It’s crude, but you get the point.
Meanwhile, the proposal for GHG reductions from Japan’s Prime Minister, Taro Aso, received, at best, a lukewarm reception. Some observers were manifestly not amused. Aso pledged to cut emissions by 15% under 2005 levels by 2020. Yvo de Boer, the UNFCCC executive secretary, was taken aback by the perceived lack of ambition from Japan. The AP quoted him here: “For the first time in 2½ years in this job, I don’t know what to say.” Ouch.
Mr. Aso, however, told the “FT” that “The target we are using is for ‘genuine clear water’ or ‘mamizu’ as we say in Japanese – truly a genuine net effect of our effort to save and conserve energy. Unlike the European Union, we do not include [purchased] emissions trading.” He also noted that Japan will hit a target of 20% on renewables in the short term, partially by radically stepping up solar. See the article and this transcript of the interview.
Some analysts are noting that Japan is only low-balling their commitment. This seems perfectly plausible. There is likely to be a bit of posturing as we approach December and the Copenhagen conference.
